Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 21.5% on 7 Sep 2025. Before it settled, across the 118 daily closes on record from 7 Sep 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 32% on 11 Oct 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 21 points up, to 29.5% on 29 Sep 2025. $1.46M traded over the market's life.
363 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 12, 4:01 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 118 points, 7 Sep 2025 – 1 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 7 Sep 2025 | 21.5% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| smaugvision | Yes | 100.7K |
| Chileno901 | Yes | 50.01K |
| Rowdy-Leaver | Yes | 29.78K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between September 6, 2025, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-forces-in-venezuela-by
New to prediction markets?
| Yes |
| 10.37K |
| QuickStar3855 | Yes | 7.36K |
| ragnork | Yes | 5.91K |
| ShinyPig | Yes | 4.74K |
| ..fredqf | Yes | 3.81K |
| elmorrogallo | Yes | 3.53K |
| Rxgb | Yes | 3.47K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
