Analytics
Resolved Yes on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.6%. Yes opened at 78% on 22 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 42 daily closes on record from 22 Nov 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 99.6% on 1 Jan 2026 and the lowest 78% on 22 Nov 2025. Its largest one-day move was 7.5 points up, to 85.5% on 23 Nov 2025. $41.2K traded over the market's life.
57 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 8:31 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 42 points, 22 Nov 2025 – 1 Jan 2026, chart shows 70%–100%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 22 Nov 2025 | 78.0% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 99.6% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Lepolo | No | 405.83 |
| BigCucker | No | 400 |
| defisurfer1 | No | 367.63 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | No | 310 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET: - Nuclear weapon detonated - A US-Iran nuclear deal is reached - Israel confirmed it has nuclear weapons - Trump says the 'N Word' Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Nothing+Ever+Happens+Nuclear+Edition.pdf
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/nothing-ever-happens-nuclear-edition
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | No | 281 |
| oak | No | 207 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | No | 199 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | No | 122 |
| Thegozat | No | 115.46 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | No | 100 |
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
