What is the “Will the US strike Iran next?” market asking?

It asks whether the following will happen: Will the US strike Iran next? It is one of the markets in the Polymarket event “Next Country US Strikes”. Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.

What do the Yes and No prices mean?

At the last observation Yes traded at 0.0¢ and No at 100.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 0.0% for Yes and 100.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.

When does this market close?

Trading is scheduled to close on Jan 13, 2026. After the close no new trades are accepted and the outcome is settled by the resolution source.

How does this market resolve?

This market will resolve according to the first country against which the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the soil or any official embassy or consulate after the time of this market's creation. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country. A…

What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?

24h volume ($1.12M) is the dollar value of shares traded in the last 24 hours. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Who holds the biggest positions in this market?

Vultax loaded 389 public holder wallets for this market; the largest ten hold 93.5% of the loaded shares. The Holders view lists them by size on each side, and every wallet links to its trader profile.

Where does this data come from and how fresh is it?

Prices, the order book, holders and the trade tape come from Polymarket's public order book and data API. Vultax records each observation with its own timestamp (market facts last updated Jan 15, 8:21 AM) and shows a value as unavailable rather than as zero when a source has not answered.

Can I trade this market on Vultax?

No. Vultax is a research and paper-trading terminal; it does not execute orders. The trade controls open the official market on Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-strike-iran-next-784) or the Vultax predictions monitor, where you can track the market and paper trade it.

Will the US strike Iran next? | Polymarket odds & analytics

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Delayed

Analytics

Predictions Analytics

Will the US strike Iran next? | Polymarket odds & analytics | Vultax

Market referencewill-the-us-strike-iran-next-784Updated Jan 15, 2026

Closed

Scheduled close Jan 13, 2026

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Observed Yes 0¢Observed No 100¢

24h Volume

$1.1M

Scheduled close

Jan 13, 2026

Overview Prices Holders Trades

Source Evidence

Evidence coverage

Items

Fetched

Latest

Jan 15, 2026

Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.

Depth

Observed

Jan 15, 2026

This resolved market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.

Trading stateMarket usability at the displayed observation.

Market state

Closed

Order book

Captured book available

Observed Yes

0.0%

The venue reports this market closed, but no resolved outcome is inferred.

Holder depthCapped public top-holder sample.

Rows loaded

389

Wallets

389

Top 10 share

93%

Yes / No shares

842.9K / 1.22M

Rows reflect the positive holders returned for this market, not venue-wide open interest.

Recent tapeLatest public market trades.

Trades loaded

500

Wallets

214

Loaded notional

Reported market positionsProvider-reported rows from the displayed market-position observation.

Trader	Outcome	Shares	Avg entry	Cost basis	Last trade
Indigo Signal 2966	No	1.22M	0.0%	$0
duderr	Yes	510.12K	50.0%	$0	Jan 13, 11:39 PM

Next Country US Strikes

Questions

Questions about this market

What is the “Will the US strike Iran next?” market asking?: It asks whether the following will happen: Will the US strike Iran next? It is one of the markets in the Polymarket event “Next Country US Strikes”. Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.
What do the Yes and No prices mean?: At the last observation Yes traded at 0.0¢ and No at 100.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 0.0% for Yes and 100.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.
When does this market close?: Trading is scheduled to close on Jan 13, 2026. After the close no new trades are accepted and the outcome is settled by the resolution source.
How does this market resolve?: This market will resolve according to the first country against which the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the soil or any official embassy or consulate after the time of this market's creation. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country. A…
What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?: 24h volume ($1.12M) is the dollar value of shares traded in the last 24 hours. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Top holders by valueReturned holders ranked by current holding value. Profit and win rate are unavailable for this sample.

Trader	Current holding value
Indigo Signal 2966	$1.22M
Wesleyvg	$1.53
duderr	$0
bamesjond	$0
Jack.Sparrow	$0
Virtuous-Diction	$0
zoomer1	$0
Radub	$0
Amisraelchai	$0
Justdone	$0
Creepy-Descent	$0
Rafaeltprp	$0