What is the “Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026?” market asking?

It asks whether the following will happen: Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026? It is one of the markets in the Polymarket event “GPT-6 released by…?”. Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.

What do the Yes and No prices mean?

At the last observation Yes traded at 0.0¢ and No at 100.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 0.0% for Yes and 100.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.

How did this market resolve?

It resolved No on 22 Aug 2026. Trading has stopped; the record of prices, holders and trades stays on this page.

How does this market resolve?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is…

What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?

Volume is the dollar value of shares traded in a period, liquidity is the dollar value resting in the order book ready to be traded against, and open interest is the value of all shares currently held. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Who still holds shares in this market?

59 public wallets still held shares when Vultax last looked. Winners usually redeem their shares after settlement, so the remaining holders are mostly on the losing side.

Where does this data come from and how fresh is it?

Prices, the order book, holders and the trade tape come from Polymarket's public order book and data API. Vultax records each observation with its own timestamp (market facts last updated Aug 22, 10:45 PM UTC) and shows a value as unavailable rather than as zero when a source has not answered.

Can I trade this market on Vultax?

No. Vultax is a research and paper-trading terminal; it does not execute orders. The trade controls open the official market on Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/gpt-6-released-by) or the Vultax predictions monitor, where you can track the market and paper trade it.

Resolved No: Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026?

Market referencewill-gpt-6-be-released-by-august-21-2026Updated Aug 22, 2026 UTC

Resolved

No · settled Aug 22, 2026 UTCopenaigpt-5

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$190.4K

Resolved

Settled

Aug 22, 2026 UTC

Source Evidence

Evidence coverage

Items

Fetched

Latest

23d ago

Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.

Depth

Observed

Aug 22, 2026 UTC

This closed market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.

Trading stateMarket usability at the displayed observation.

Market state

Resolved

Order book

Captured book available

Final outcome

The resolved venue state is treated as proof of resolution; holder and trade rows are settlement context.

Holder depthCapped public top-holder sample.

Rows loaded

Wallets

Top 10 share

84%

Yes / No shares

27.37K / 22.05

Rows reflect the positive holders returned for this market, not venue-wide open interest.

Recent tapeLatest public market trades.

Trades loaded

500

Wallets

246

Loaded notional

$79.27K

No buy at 99.9%

History rangePolymarket CLOB price history · daily closes · latest observation Aug 22, 12:00 AM UTC

Points

Move

-27 pts

Range

0.1% - 29.0%

Jul 10, 12:00 AM UTC to Aug 22, 12:00 AM UTC

Remaining positions after settlementWinners redeemed their shares, so these rows lean to the losing side. Not live orderbook depth or current OI.

Trader	Outcome	Shares	Avg entry	Cost basis	Last trade
6F456F7474666A7479	Yes	15.48K	2.1%	$15.48K	Aug 19, 7:34 PM UTC
Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Yes	1.83K	17.6%

GPT-6 released by…?

Topic room

Every related market on one live board

Best AI Model oddsWhich company will have the best AI model at the end of this month?

Questions

Questions about this market

What is the “Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026?” market asking?: It asks whether the following will happen: Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026? It is one of the markets in the Polymarket event “GPT-6 released by…?”. Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.
What do the Yes and No prices mean?: At the last observation Yes traded at 0.0¢ and No at 100.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 0.0% for Yes and 100.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.
How did this market resolve?: It resolved No on 22 Aug 2026. Trading has stopped; the record of prices, holders and trades stays on this page.
How does this market resolve?: This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is…
What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?: Volume is the dollar value of shares traded in a period, liquidity is the dollar value resting in the order book ready to be traded against, and open interest is the value of all shares currently held. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Analytics

Trader

Outcome

Avg entry

Cost basis

Last trade

6F456F7474666A7479

Yes

15.48K

2.1%

$15.48K

Aug 19, 7:34 PM UTC

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Yes

1.83K

17.6%

Trader	Current holding value
TOPdin	$10.16
Hermitsupreme	$6.56
Thepermster	$5.33
6F456F7474666A7479	$0
Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	$0
ProfitMuhammedPBUH	$0
Kennz0r	$0
meagainsttheworld	$0
real-hero-himmel	$0
Informal-Smuggling	$0
Danqin	$0
moneymemoneynow	$0