Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Sep 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 62% on 9 Jul 2026. Before it settled, the high was 62% on 9 Jul 2026 and the low 0.1% on 1 Sep 2026. Its largest one-day move was 19 points down, to 43% on 10 Jul 2026. $297.82K traded over the market's life.
154 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Sep 2, 4:42 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 54 points · 9 Jul 2026 – 1 Sep 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 9 Jul 2026 | 62.0% |
| 1 Sep 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| 6F456F7474666A7479 | Yes | 13.53K |
| Taut-Desktop | Yes | 6.17K |
| Understated-Bather | Yes | 4.17K |
| HerrieDavis | Yes | 3.49K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/gpt-6-released-by
| barfje | Yes | 3.36K |
| whatamidoingg | Yes | 1.76K |
| troim | Yes | 1.6K |
| JAMJAMJAM4 | Yes | 1.18K |
| TooLateJerome021 | Yes | 1.03K |
| donotthinktwice | Yes | 868.22 |
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