Analytics
Resolved Yes on 4 Sep 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.8%. Yes opened at 63% on 15 Aug 2026. Before it settled, the high was 99.8% on 4 Sep 2026 and the low 54% on 16 Aug 2026. Its largest one-day move was 22 points up, to 93.5% on 3 Sep 2026. $36.42K traded over the market's life.
19 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Sep 5, 7:14 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 21 points · 15 Aug 2026 – 4 Sep 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 15 Aug 2026 | 63.0% |
| 4 Sep 2026 | 99.8% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| aosdijf | No | 9.6K |
| balthazar | No | 3.96K |
| Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | No | 1K |
| libratus1 | No | 581.16 |
| Misty Harbor 2967 | No | 200 |
| 8dcc906a9b | No | 133.01 |
| Menacing-Revitalization-Anorak | No | 100 |
| joemams | No | 100 |
| SuperTests | No | 58 |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. | No | 53 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/gpt-6-released-by
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