Analytics
Resolved Yes on 4 Sep 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 98.9%. Yes opened at 50% on 5 Feb 2026. Before it settled, across the 197 daily closes on record from 5 Feb 2026 to 4 Sep 2026 (15 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 98.9% on 4 Sep 2026 and the lowest 14% on 30 Jun 2026. Its largest one-day move was 35 points up, to 88% on 3 Sep 2026. $580.6K traded over the market's life.
220 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Sep 5, 7:46 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 197 points, 5 Feb 2026 – 4 Sep 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Feb 2026 | 50.0% |
| 4 Sep 2026 | 98.9% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| On.The.Spectrum | No | 7.64K |
| Meyney | No | 3.6K |
| Zachattack500 | No | 2.56K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/gpt-6-released-by
| BikesAreTheBikes | No | 2.16K |
| lizlocks | No | 1.97K |
| HorribleWork | No | 1.9K |
| GUINESS123 | No | 1.6K |
| thursdays | No | 1.4K |
| Mr.Frog🐸 | No | 1.05K |
| alex2945545 | No | 1.03K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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