Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 10% on 8 Aug 2025. Before it settled, across the 148 daily closes on record from 8 Aug 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 29.5% on 31 Aug 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 25 points up, to 29.5% on 31 Aug 2025. $107.89K traded over the market's life.
88 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 21, 6:19 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 148 points, 8 Aug 2025 – 1 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 8 Aug 2025 | 10.0% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.1% |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/gpt-6-released-by
| Yes |
| 1.37K |
| seventhwhiskey | Yes | 1.25K |
| kuranes90 | Yes | 1.15K |
| tutunuru | Yes | 883.03 |
| AIX9 | Yes | 833.33 |
| Pivko | Yes | 831 |
| Blond-Plight | Yes | 714.29 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
