Analytics
Resolved No on 15 Aug 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.5%. Yes opened at 19.5% on 10 Jul 2026. Before it settled, across the 36 daily closes on record from 10 Jul 2026 to 15 Aug 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 19.5% on 10 Jul 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 14 Aug 2026. Its largest one-day move was 10 points up, to 11.6% on 7 Aug 2026. $171.42K traded over the market's life.
68 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 21, 6:19 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 36 points, 10 Jul 2026 – 15 Aug 2026, chart shows 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Jul 2026 | 19.5% |
| 15 Aug 2026 | 0.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Azure Oracle 144D | Yes | 3.85K |
| lizlocks | Yes | 2.05K |
| bearmagnet | Yes | 1.53K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/gpt-6-released-by
| Yes |
| 1.33K |
| tamasdb | Yes | 1.27K |
| gdime27 | Yes | 1.11K |
| HerrieDavis | Yes | 901.13 |
| 4gja | Yes | 751 |
| Heater69 | Yes | 688.76 |
| Imaginary-Array | Yes | 686.38 |
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
