Will the US strike Iran next?

Name: Will the US strike Iran next? — implied probability history
License: https://vultax.com/legal/terms

Resolved

No, settled Mar 2, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$1.9M

Resolved

Settled

Mar 2, 2026 UTC

Positions left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares	Avg entry	Cost basis	Last trade
Indigo Signal 2966	No	757.89K	0.0%	$0
plankton2	Yes	55.47K	0.0%	$0
toxiev3	Yes	48.13K	1.3%	$611.41
Trusty-Wormhole	Yes	26.27K	0.0%	$0	Mar 1, 10:30 PM UTC
Naive-Pan	Yes	20.79K	1.2%	$257.15	Mar 1, 10:51 PM UTC
Bold Kestrel 48C2	Yes	12.8K	5.8%	$737.99
Clueless-Pinafore	Yes	10.49K	7.6%	$799.34
Roytou	Yes	8.8K	9.2%	$807.4
bbaaggrrzuz4	Yes	8.59K	3.2%	$274.2
Solar Beacon EA6D	Yes	7.8K	2.9%	$224.99
Simple-Tamale	Yes	7.26K	3.5%	$257.74
Interesting-Jet	Yes	6.61K	3.8%	$250.95
Slim-Tights	Yes	5.31K	3.5%	$185.99	Mar 1, 10:51 PM UTC
rayosglobal10	Yes	5.06K	4.0%	$200
Staid-Nibble	Yes	4.81K	1.9%	$89.99	Mar 1, 9:33 PM UTC
Favorable-Raft	Yes	3.88K	5.1%	$200
Flawed-Wound	Yes	3.85K	1.8%	$70
bamesjond	Yes	3.84K	0.0%	$0	Mar 1, 10:49 PM UTC
AzizJet	Yes	3.29K	2.5%	$82.94
Golden Beacon 67A6	Yes	3.2K	0.4%	$12.8	Mar 1, 11:52 PM UTC
Bowed-Chasm	Yes	3.2K	1.7%	$54	Mar 1, 8:33 PM UTC
eixer	Yes	3.14K	9.5%	$298.91
beshbarma	Yes	3.1K	0.4%	$14	Mar 2, 12:13 AM UTC
Sane-Policeman	Yes	2.89K	0.8%	$23.5	Mar 1, 10:43 PM UTC
Tes57	Yes	2.84K	1.8%	$50
Past-Power	Yes	2.81K	1.4%	$39.4
mavs07	Yes	2.51K	2.2%	$55.68
Cosmic Vector B255	Yes	2.28K	3.8%	$85.99
Petty-Gymnastics	Yes	2.12K	3.1%	$65
Separate-Diplomacy	Yes	1.99K	5.0%	$100
Kahunadale	Yes	1.98K	2.5%	$50
Ideal-Fear	Yes	1.88K	1.9%	$35	Mar 1, 9:42 PM UTC
Biodegradable-Bowling	Yes	1.87K	5.3%	$100
Petersen12	Yes	1.82K	0.8%	$13.96	Mar 1, 10:51 PM UTC
Neighboring-Waterfront-Type	Yes	1.73K	5.4%	$94
Rapid Meteor 4583	Yes	1.63K	3.0%	$49
jonibtc	Yes	1.48K	5.0%	$74.62
deadghost	Yes	1.41K	3.9%	$55.14	Mar 1, 10:43 PM UTC
Jittery-Crow	Yes	1.4K	2.8%	$39.19
horatio	Yes	1.37K	91.9%	$1.26K
Ajdaddy	Yes	1.37K	1.5%	$20.64	Mar 1, 7:28 PM UTC
Skymaster888	Yes	1.34K	2.4%	$31.49
Creepy-Welfare	Yes	1.29K	4.2%	$54
Pleasing-Overhead	Yes	1.25K	0.8%	$10	Mar 1, 11:12 PM UTC
Ronensw1	Yes	1.24K	4.0%	$50
Frugal-Terminology	Yes	1.22K	5.6%	$68.64
Darling-Repair	Yes	1.22K	3.3%	$40
Cosmic Meteor BF6A	Yes	1.21K	4.1%	$50
AkashiRyota	Yes	1.19K	3.1%	$37
FeloniusMusk	Yes	1.18K	8.8%	$104.23
Intrepid-Ultimatum	Yes	1.18K	1.7%	$20
Guesswhatx	Yes	1.17K	3.4%	$40
Vanga-Predictor	Yes	1.06K	2.8%	$29.93
Rfk	Yes	1.04K	5.0%	$52
Skylife33	Yes	1.03K	6.9%	$71.55
bllehh	Yes	1K	0.3%	$3
Neat-Possible	Yes	999.98	1.0%	$10
Lunar Kestrel 1A23	Yes	986.67	5.1%	$50
Nonameye	Yes	926.17	3.6%	$33.43
Classic-Sediment	Yes	924.14	9.7%	$90.05
Loathsome-Septicaemia	Yes	905.08	8.9%	$80.62
KELANIGHT	Yes	800.31	6.2%	$50
Made-Up-Darn	Yes	795.08	2.5%	$20
PENIS	Yes	747.77	3.3%	$24.44
Variable-Section	Yes	692.13	1.4%	$10
Koskov	Yes	672.42	1.5%	$10	Mar 1, 10:27 PM UTC
Pointless-Duster	Yes	665.18	0.5%	$3.68	Mar 1, 11:42 PM UTC
Violet Scout 533F	Yes	656.22	2.7%	$18
Sleepy-Removal	Yes	645.16	3.1%	$20
Jittery-Soybean	Yes	642.16	0.7%	$4.5	Mar 1, 11:39 PM UTC
Halahula	Yes	601.21	5.0%	$30
Ilanlokid	Yes	590.15	1.7%	$10	Mar 1, 8:04 PM UTC
BananaRice	Yes	588.24	1.7%	$10	Mar 1, 7:56 PM UTC
Female-Dig	Yes	573.94	2.0%	$11.31
Offensive-Inversion	Yes	558.64	1.8%	$10
Kokomelo21	Yes	556.11	1.8%	$10
HeaterGriffin	Yes	548.77	4.5%	$25
Emerald Harbor 995A	Yes	535.71	2.8%	$15
trolox	Yes	531	9.4%	$50
Honest-Nation	Yes	530.53	1.9%	$10
alexardpoul	Yes	526.58	2.8%	$15
amit53733	Yes	526.32	1.9%	$10	Mar 1, 9:55 PM UTC
Godil	Yes	524.59	2.3%	$12
Sugary-Illness	Yes	523.01	0.9%	$5
Disloyal-Watercress	Yes	506.5	1.0%	$5	Mar 1, 10:54 PM UTC
Christian-7	Yes	504.36	2.0%	$10
xlefgerx	Yes	500.01	0.9%	$4.5
Dapper-Criminal	Yes	500	2.0%	$10
Solar Atlas 2B08	Yes	500	0.6%	$3	Mar 1, 11:53 PM UTC
Banoona	Yes	500	2.0%	$10
DeepVienna	Yes	475.26	1.9%	$9
Second-Puddle	Yes	456.23	2.4%	$11
Partial-Carboxyl	Yes	454.55	3.3%	$15
Juan99	Yes	440.09	11.0%	$48.31
Downright-Neuropathologist	Yes	428.42	2.3%	$10
avocado288	Yes	416.67	2.4%	$10
karibus	Yes	416.67	2.4%	$10
Drafty-Dream	Yes	406.23	3.7%	$15
Dili.	Yes	401.13	2.5%	$10
GambitMask	Yes	400	2.5%	$10
siick	Yes	399.99	67.0%	$267.99
bmblglo	Yes	384.62	2.6%	$10
InterestingGame	Yes	379.73	4.0%	$15
giladd92	Yes	376.16	0.7%	$2.71	Mar 1, 10:46 PM UTC
Daniel3232	Yes	374.61	2.7%	$10
predictionponyft	Yes	372.77	3.7%	$13.86
Kghhh	Yes	372.22	2.7%	$10
Raw-Trafficker	Yes	367.39	8.2%	$30
Gentle-Ordinary	Yes	360.14	2.8%	$10
wizardito	Yes	357.44	5.6%	$20
khuraibah	Yes	357.14	1.4%	$5
Secondary-Prompt	Yes	357.14	1.4%	$5
yaariiii	Yes	353.91	2.8%	$10
Neon Orbit E5D7	Yes	342.49	2.9%	$10
Creamy-Fellow	Yes	340.75	2.9%	$10
Proper-Ideal	Yes	340.33	2.9%	$10
Lost-Biosphere	Yes	333.33	1.5%	$5
bayaa	Yes	333.33	3.0%	$10
alexandrebayon	Yes	330.85	1.8%	$6
Noted-Arithmetic	Yes	325.84	4.3%	$14
Venerated-Subexpression	Yes	300	0.5%	$1.5	Mar 1, 11:30 PM UTC
slamminshay	Yes	300	2.3%	$6.83
BoubouleLePetitZboub	Yes	300	4.9%	$14.7
andrepcaio	Yes	299.53	3.3%	$10
Wee-Home	Yes	299.33	3.0%	$8.97
Satisfied-Designation	Yes	296.76	1.7%	$5
Immaculate-Commonsense	Yes	295.3	2.0%	$6
These-Eurocentrism	Yes	284.74	3.8%	$10.82
Vicious-Reverse	Yes	280.74	14.8%	$41.5
Alarmed-Gaiters	Yes	279.72	3.6%	$10
Grandiose-Stuff	Yes	278.33	1.8%	$5	Mar 1, 8:20 PM UTC
Vapid-Pilgrim	Yes	272.8	11.3%	$30.98
241142442412142	Yes	269.98	6.6%	$17.71
Misty Summit 1F07	Yes	268.06	3.6%	$9.65
Tight-Future	Yes	250.87	2.0%	$5
Mrbandito	Yes	250	2.0%	$5
topbanana	Yes	250	2.0%	$5
getmoneyasap	Yes	250	0.6%	$1.5	Mar 1, 10:48 PM UTC
Randomwinner2020	Yes	249.52	3.2%	$8
Chief-Slippers	Yes	247.78	1.2%	$3	Mar 1, 11:11 PM UTC
Self-Reliant-Guarantee	Yes	238.1	2.1%	$5
Gaseous-Finish	Yes	236.22	2.8%	$6.73
Lior121	Yes	235.29	1.7%	$4
Boiling-Validate	Yes	228.57	0.7%	$1.57	Mar 1, 10:33 PM UTC
Flamboyant-Ceramic	Yes	227.27	4.4%	$10
Krisi98	Yes	213.85	7.0%	$15
Cluttered-Side	Yes	211.36	1.9%	$4
herewe	Yes	210	11.5%	$24.09
Ivory Orbit 18D9	Yes	201.68	1.8%	$3.56
Hahayea	Yes	199.77	5.0%	$10
Ikuoluk	Yes	197.15	1.5%	$2.89	Mar 1, 10:20 PM UTC
TimBoss	Yes	186.51	2.7%	$5
Lonely-Navigation	Yes	186.1	2.7%	$5
Present-Character	Yes	181.1	2.8%	$5
Sin1123	Yes	178.17	2.8%	$5
Amber Raven 1D84	Yes	178.12	5.6%	$10
Every-Father	Yes	176.97	5.2%	$9.2
Iknowup	Yes	173.91	2.3%	$4
knighTHawC	Yes	170.59	1.7%	$2.9
Amazing-Riddle	Yes	167.83	3.0%	$5
statham.42069	Yes	167.09	6.0%	$10
Shharukh	Yes	151.52	3.3%	$5
Buildbackbettor	Yes	147.21	3.4%	$5
Bold Ledger 08FF	Yes	142.86	0.7%	$1	Mar 1, 10:33 PM UTC
Oddball-Router	Yes	140	2.6%	$3.64
Waverider	Yes	136.23	3.7%	$5
Swift Beacon 2D32	Yes	136.06	7.1%	$9.66
Kindhearted-Settlement	Yes	134	4.5%	$6
Neil123	Yes	131.2	26.6%	$34.9
Praktykalny	Yes	130.63	0.8%	$1	Mar 1, 11:08 PM UTC
Emerald Maven 181E	Yes	130.22	3.8%	$5
Cosmic Raven C559	Yes	129.04	1.6%	$2
Cultured-Chuck	Yes	125	0.8%	$1	Mar 1, 11:08 PM UTC
Rapid Comet B036	Yes	124	6.0%	$7.39
Numb-Cowbell	Yes	118.06	1.7%	$2
Lay-Z7	Yes	115.38	2.6%	$3
Bright Harbor D04B	Yes	113.87	4.4%	$5
FunnyFarm	Yes	113.82	4.4%	$5
Ghouls1	Yes	112.67	4.4%	$5
Far-Flung-Agony	Yes	112.54	2.7%	$3
Crimson Horizon 15E9	Yes	112.44	2.7%	$3
mbs33	Yes	111.11	2.7%	$3
Feline-Sunlamp	Yes	109.1	4.6%	$5
BitBotil	Yes	105.63	4.7%	$5
Quiet Harbor C697	Yes	104.17	2.4%	$2.5
Bakhtak	Yes	102	4.9%	$5
Jakeydoodle	Yes	101.6	4.9%	$5
Mild-Chives	Yes	100.9	5.0%	$5
aoimic23	Yes	100	3.6%	$3.66
Rokokoraccoon	Yes	100	1.0%	$1
Shameful-Revitalization	Yes	100	2.0%	$2
johncocrs	Yes	100	2.6%	$2.6
Aveed	Yes	100	4.0%	$4
jkbasfvpbaef	Yes	100	10.0%	$10
Gleaming-Antigen	Yes	100	2.6%	$2.6
TheReader	Yes	96.86	5.2%	$5
Ornate-Thickness	Yes	94.11	5.3%	$5
Mali9610	Yes	92.59	5.4%	$5
OzBilu	Yes	88.25	6.0%	$5.3
fdviud8347379erhfidk	Yes	87.07	2.3%	$2
NoMoreMister	Yes	85.09	0.6%	$0.55	Mar 1, 9:59 PM UTC
Simmy441	Yes	84.17	1.2%	$1
Chilly-Kite	Yes	83.8	2.4%	$2
Noammmm	Yes	83.77	6.0%	$5
MMI	Yes	80	4.0%	$3.2
carrural474	Yes	76.92	1.3%	$1	Mar 1, 10:21 PM UTC
Misty Harbor 5014	Yes	76.92	1.3%	$1
Frosthegambler	Yes	76.92	1.3%	$1
Conventional-Feast	Yes	76.92	5.2%	$4
Swift Signal BF78	Yes	72.7	5.5%	$4
JoccoLocco	Yes	71.43	1.4%	$1	Mar 1, 8:55 PM UTC
Gogasne	Yes	71.43	2.8%	$2
Gripping-Kiss	Yes	70.98	4.2%	$3
Danesh	Yes	70.61	4.2%	$3
Infantile-Call	Yes	69.55	2.1%	$1.5
MtuM55	Yes	69.38	4.3%	$3
Writhing-Query	Yes	68.18	4.4%	$3
Politomi	Yes	67.33	1.5%	$1	Mar 1, 9:08 PM UTC
Gimli	Yes	66.67	1.5%	$1
DiddyMaster	Yes	62.5	1.6%	$1
Conscious-Content	Yes	62.5	1.6%	$1
IVeColls	Yes	62.5	1.6%	$1
21probs	Yes	62.5	1.6%	$1
tstrading	Yes	62.5	1.6%	$1
Well-Off-Sidewalk	Yes	62.5	1.6%	$1
Purple-Cannibal	Yes	60	5.0%	$3
Ivory Voyager 5AEB	Yes	59.41	1.7%	$1	Mar 1, 8:10 PM UTC
00dipad00	Yes	58.82	1.7%	$1
Thirsty-Spending	Yes	58.82	1.7%	$1
Fitting-Insight	Yes	58.82	1.7%	$1
Qlique	Yes	58.82	1.7%	$1
Rapid Horizon 3AF0	Yes	58.82	3.4%	$2
Flowery-Layer	Yes	58.82	1.7%	$1
cry.eth2	Yes	58.01	5.0%	$2.9	Mar 2, 12:01 AM UTC
Tangible-Harmonise	Yes	57.39	1.7%	$1
Direct-Filter	Yes	55.56	1.8%	$1
saiaja	Yes	55.56	1.8%	$1
wasknijper	Yes	55.56	1.8%	$1
merzost53	Yes	55.56	1.8%	$1
Boboca	Yes	55.56	1.8%	$1	Mar 1, 7:54 PM UTC
Rustyyy	Yes	52.64	1.9%	$1
SonnyGomez	Yes	52.63	1.9%	$1
Biodegradable-Import	Yes	52.63	5.7%	$3
Vacant-Hassock	Yes	52.63	1.9%	$1
Unwieldy-Qualification	Yes	52.08	9.6%	$5
Sturdy-Pug	Yes	51.08	78.3%	$40
F-22	Yes	50	8.0%	$4
Naive-Linguistics	Yes	50	2.0%	$1
Subtle-Pizza	Yes	47.62	2.1%	$1
PaulWebb	Yes	47.06	17.0%	$8
Vicious-Guinea	Yes	44.78	2.2%	$1
Wee-Middleman	Yes	44.72	8.9%	$3.98
laogao233	Yes	44.46	96.0%	$42.67
0xalxkallio	Yes	43.48	2.3%	$1
Solar Summit D623	Yes	40.82	4.9%	$2
JudyB	Yes	40	2.5%	$1
Golden Sphinx B4FF	Yes	40	5.0%	$2
iguana3342	Yes	40	2.5%	$1
Fatal-Patient	Yes	40	5.0%	$2
Ivory Lynx CC44	Yes	39.61	5.0%	$2
Private-Resale	Yes	38.46	2.6%	$1
Pretty-Spider	No	37.77	99.0%	$37.39
ElShinras	Yes	37.04	2.7%	$1
InMyDefense	Yes	37.04	2.7%	$1
579170	Yes	36.36	5.5%	$2
TESTENAOMEXA	Yes	36.07	2.8%	$1
Open-Clipper	Yes	35.71	2.8%	$1
Cosmic Sphinx A6F7	Yes	35.71	2.8%	$1
Mindless-Existence	Yes	35.09	5.7%	$2
ShadowH1	Yes	34.83	2.9%	$1
abc1231112441	Yes	34	3.0%	$1.02
EbalAmeriku	Yes	33.33	3.0%	$1
Foolish-Protest	Yes	33.33	3.0%	$1
Georges.k	Yes	33.33	3.0%	$1
Long-Term-Smog	Yes	33.33	6.0%	$2
unoreverse1	Yes	33	3.0%	$0.99
kdvks	Yes	31.25	3.2%	$1
aburakan	Yes	30.5	3.3%	$1
Bold Sphinx 2E6F	Yes	30	4.2%	$1.27
Vicious-Plywood	Yes	28.57	3.5%	$1
Stm007	Yes	28.57	3.5%	$1
Azure Voyager 30AD	Yes	28.3	5.3%	$1.5
skilo1994	Yes	27.93	3.6%	$1
Pprediction	Yes	27.78	18.0%	$5
Violet Orbit B33E	Yes	27.03	3.7%	$1
Bold Harbor 3E9B	Yes	27.03	3.7%	$1
Da2511	Yes	25.86	7.7%	$2
Frail-Monocle	Yes	25.64	3.9%	$1
Luckyfortunate	Yes	25	20.0%	$5
DANIEL-2026	Yes	22.44	4.5%	$1
Royal-Baseboard	Yes	22.22	4.5%	$1
wokerjoesleeper	Yes	20.87	0.0%	$0
Grave-Effacement	Yes	20	5.0%	$1
Jade Kestrel BFF3	Yes	18.16	5.5%	$1
Reliable-Chub	Yes	17.54	5.7%	$1
casinoman	Yes	15.87	6.3%	$1
Teyncz	Yes	15.87	6.3%	$1
BPROTO	Yes	14.93	13.4%	$2
Nocturnal-Whack	Yes	10.31	9.7%	$1
rgsh81	Yes	9.62	52.0%	$5
Lunar Lynx 6D43	Yes	7.69	13.0%	$1
TJtrades	Yes	5.56	90.0%	$5
Contentia	Yes	5.15	97.0%	$5
Defenseless-Suite	Yes	3.89	1.5%	$0.06	Mar 1, 10:55 PM UTC
PX5300	Yes	3.14	1.5%	$0.05
oak	Yes	2.87	0.7%	$0.02
2pm	No	0.59	93.4%	$0.55
EdwardLewis	Yes	0.49	4.9%	$0.02
RandomUserCA	Yes	0.47	3.0%	$0.01

309 of 309 positions.

Holders by valueThe same holders, ranked by what their position is worth now.

Trader	Holding value
Indigo Signal 2966	$757.89K
Pretty-Spider	$37.77
2pm	$0.59

Analytics