Analytics
Yes is at 9.5%, down 14 points from 24% when the market opened on 2 Jun 2026.
The high was 65.5% on 28 Jun 2026 and the low 7% on 14 Aug 2026. A week ago Yes was at 10.5%; a month ago, 9%. Its largest one-day move was 51 points up, to 65.5% on 28 Jun 2026.
It is one of 16 markets under “Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?”.
$302.46 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $118.59K since listing. The order book holds $11.84K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $1.15K bought Yes and $26.97K bought No; the largest was a $7.79K buy of No at 80.7¢.
The largest Yes position is ImJustKen with 5K shares; the largest No position is LJa7io23MCv954j with 8.7K. Ten wallets hold 63.1% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 86 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 7, 1:06 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 128 points · 2 Jun 2026 – 7 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Jun 2026 | 24.0% |
| 7 Oct 2026 | 9.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| LJa7io23MCv954j | No | 8.68K |
| M2sx92kljs42 | No | 6.17K |
| ImJustKenVerifiedVerified Polymarket profile |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-countries-will-recognize-israel-by-december-31
4 more markets, none above 2.5%.
| Yes |
| 5K |
| HerrieDavis | Yes | 2.34K |
| PolyJaguar | Yes | 1.82K |
| rgess | Yes | 1.72K |
| FastPaws | No | 1.7K |
| ScottyNooo | Yes | 1.47K |
| rtyhsdd | Yes | 1.26K |
| Broken-Cashew | Yes | 1.07K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
