Analytics
Yes is at 3.4%, down 8.2 points from 11.5% when the market opened on 2 Jun 2026.
Across the 139 daily closes on record from 2 Jun 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (10 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 11.5% on 2 Jun 2026 and the lowest 3.4% on 27 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 3.4%; a month before, 3.4%.
It is one of 16 markets under “Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?”.
$205.88 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $16.3K since listing. The order book holds $44.54K, with a 0.1% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 169 trades, $201.94 bought Yes and $3.54K bought No; the largest was a $1.47K buy of No at 92.0¢.
The largest Yes position is Dr.PNL with 504 shares; the largest No position is tnl with 1.6K. Ten wallets hold 89.6% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 10:26 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 139 points, 2 Jun 2026 – 28 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Jun 2026 | 11.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 3.4% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| tnl | No | 1.6K |
| Dr.PNL | Yes | 503.59 |
| thecaricature | Yes | 236.07 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-countries-will-recognize-israel-by-december-31
4 more markets, none above 2.6%.
| maxlang |
| Yes |
| 205.89 |
| Darling-Top | No | 202.5 |
| 1BTCis1BTC | Yes | 201.04 |
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 175.65 |
| AMAM13 | Yes | 161.1 |
| Jade Beacon E3EA | Yes | 126.18 |
| MiMiMi-509 | No | 112.47 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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