Analytics
Yes is at 3.2%, down 7.3 points from 10.5% when the market opened on 2 Jun 2026.
The high was 10.5% on 2 Jun 2026 and the low 1.5% on 8 Jul 2026. A week ago Yes was at 3%; a month ago, 4.3%. Its largest one-day move was 6.2 points up, to 9% on 14 Aug 2026.
It is one of 16 markets under “Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?”.
$22.54K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $26.01K, with a 0.4% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $76.89 bought Yes and $8.45K bought No; the largest was a $1.11K buy of No at 96.0¢.
The largest Yes position is yukdreset with 1.8K shares; the largest No position is yjdf with 705. Ten wallets hold 84.8% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 78 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 15, 6:28 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 134 points, 2 Jun 2026 – 15 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Jun 2026 | 10.5% |
| 15 Oct 2026 | 3.2% |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-countries-will-recognize-israel-by-december-31
4 more markets, none above 2.5%.
| tdjheaq |
| No |
| 452 |
| asxger | No | 375 |
| rgredxc | No | 285 |
| thecaricature | Yes | 259.03 |
| enrico-vasaio | No | 200 |
| Numitus1994 | Yes | 182.63 |
| Haradwaith | No | 125.94 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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