Analytics
Yes is at 2.9%, down 24 points from 27% when the market opened on 2 Jun 2026.
The high was 27% on 2 Jun 2026 and the low 2.3% on 7 Jul 2026. A week ago Yes was at 2.9%; a month ago, 3.4%. Its largest one-day move was 20 points down, to 7.5% on 3 Jun 2026.
It is one of 16 markets under “Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?”.
$40.52K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $20.2K, with a 0.1% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $503.67 bought Yes and $8.1K bought No.
The largest Yes position is rtyjsse with 2K shares; the largest No position is SmartBoyBilly with 1.2K. Ten wallets hold 69.8% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 74 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 20, 1:34 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 140 points, 2 Jun 2026 – 20 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Jun 2026 | 27.0% |
| 20 Oct 2026 | 2.9% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| rtyjsse | Yes | 2K |
| rthseasv | Yes | 1.74K |
| SmartBoyBilly | No | 1.2K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-countries-will-recognize-israel-by-december-31
4 more markets, none above 2.8%.
| BlindAndDeaf |
| No |
| 1.07K |
| Jade Beacon E3EA | Yes | 847.97 |
| Haradwaith | Yes | 706.45 |
| aviato | No | 687.61 |
| yjsds | No | 685 |
| seryesd | No | 555 |
| dftyfh | No | 500 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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