Analytics
Yes is at 7.5%, down 22 points from 29.5% when the market opened on 2 Jun 2026.
The high was 59.5% on 30 Jun 2026 and the low 7.5% on 19 Oct 2026. A week ago Yes was at 16%; a month ago, 9%. Its largest one-day move was 44 points down, to 12.5% on 14 Aug 2026.
It is one of 16 markets under “Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?”.
$149.19 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $384.09K since listing. The order book holds $17.95K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $3.03K bought Yes and $21.22K bought No; the largest was a $3.24K buy of No at 90.0¢.
The largest Yes position is ImJustKen with 10.3K shares; the largest No position is tetrase with 14.7K. Ten wallets hold 65.6% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 74 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 19, 6:45 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 139 points, 2 Jun 2026 – 19 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Jun 2026 | 29.5% |
| 19 Oct 2026 | 7.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| tetrase | No | 14.66K |
| ImJustKenVerifiedVerified Polymarket profile | Yes | 10.33K |
| ivantoney |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-countries-will-recognize-israel-by-december-31
4 more markets, none above 2.8%.
| Yes |
| 6.44K |
| skibabiba | No | 6K |
| HerrieDavis | No | 5.83K |
| cambridgeisaac | Yes | 3.6K |
| xfghndf | Yes | 2.78K |
| Conscious-Person | Yes | 2.34K |
| rtyhsdd | Yes | 2.3K |
| Tenebrus7 | No | 1.7K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
