Analytics
Yes is at 4.8%, down 20 points from 24.5% when the market opened on 2 Jun 2026.
Across the 145 daily closes on record from 2 Jun 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 24.5% on 2 Jun 2026 and the lowest 1.9% on 7 Jul 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 4.2%; a month before, 3.5%. Its largest one-day move was 16 points down, to 8.5% on 3 Jun 2026.
It is one of 16 markets under “Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?”.
$71.56 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $17.84K since listing. The order book holds $25.03K, with a 0.8% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 257 trades, $86.2 bought Yes and $5.95K bought No; the largest was a $2.13K buy of No at 94.9¢.
The largest Yes position is PaddyAlpha with 305 shares; the largest No position is QMG-CORE with 500. Ten wallets hold 90.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 8:54 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 145 points, 2 Jun 2026 – 28 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Jun 2026 | 24.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 4.8% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| QMG-CORE | No | 500 |
| PaddyAlpha | Yes | 304.98 |
| thecaricature | Yes | 189.23 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-countries-will-recognize-israel-by-december-31
4 more markets, none above 2.6%.
| Buoyant-Wedding |
| Yes |
| 150 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 136.78 |
| Nadmi | Yes | 132.95 |
| Elias.Thornwell | No | 126.85 |
| Golden Signal D11F | No | 100 |
| archaic | No | 83.46 |
| maxlang | Yes | 60.79 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
