Analytics
Yes is at 3%, down 9.5 points from 12.5% when the market opened on 2 Jun 2026.
Across the 144 daily closes on record from 2 Jun 2026 to 27 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 12.5% on 2 Jun 2026 and the lowest 2.8% on 22 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 4%; a month before, 3.3%.
It is one of 16 markets under “Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?”.
$50 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $31.77K since listing. The order book holds $16.98K, with a 0.4% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
The largest Yes position is RememberAmalek with 3.4K shares; the largest No position is QMG-CORE with 5.6K. Ten wallets hold 82.3% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 67 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 27, 1:52 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 144 points, 2 Jun 2026 – 27 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Jun 2026 | 12.5% |
| 27 Oct 2026 | 3.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| QMG-CORE | No | 5.57K |
| RememberAmalek | Yes | 3.35K |
| Sorrymissjackson | Yes | 1.11K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-countries-will-recognize-israel-by-december-31
4 more markets, none above 2.6%.
| Rural-Cockpit |
| Yes |
| 714.29 |
| Broken-Cashew | Yes | 653.38 |
| ClearMove | Yes | 604.38 |
| aviato | No | 568.78 |
| SmartBoyBilly | No | 443 |
| Flamboyant-Warming | Yes | 422.05 |
| Darling-Top | No | 417.47 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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