Analytics
Yes is at 5.5%, down 24 points from 29.5% when the market opened on 2 Jun 2026.
Across the 141 daily closes on record from 2 Jun 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (8 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 29.5% on 2 Jun 2026 and the lowest 5.5% on 1 Jul 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 5.5%; a month before, 5.5%. Its largest one-day move was 18 points down, to 11.5% on 3 Jun 2026.
It is one of 16 markets under “Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?”.
$50 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $24.24K since listing. The order book holds $24.95K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $300.38 bought Yes and $2.38K bought No.
The largest Yes position is thdesw with 1.4K shares; the largest No position is archaic with 800. Ten wallets hold 66.5% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 6:04 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 141 points, 2 Jun 2026 – 28 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Jun 2026 | 29.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 5.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| thdesw | Yes | 1.36K |
| Smoggy-Canopy | Yes | 1.19K |
| Jade Beacon E3EA | Yes | 837.01 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-countries-will-recognize-israel-by-december-31
4 more markets, none above 2.6%.
| archaic |
| No |
| 799.94 |
| Haradwaith | Yes | 507.6 |
| tjhsefesx | No | 403 |
| Fullvie | Yes | 396 |
| xdrftcjgnhd | No | 385 |
| yukdreset | No | 355 |
| tyjuyhufza | No | 315 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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