Analytics
Yes is at 4.5%, down 23 points from 27.5% when the market opened on 2 Jun 2026.
The high was 27.5% on 2 Jun 2026 and the low 2.3% on 14 Sep 2026. A week ago Yes was at 5%; a month ago, 7.8%. Its largest one-day move was 10 points down, to 17.5% on 3 Jun 2026.
It is one of 16 markets under “Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?”.
$50.61 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $86.43K since listing. The order book holds $20.07K, with a 0.9% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $1.66K bought Yes and $11.53K bought No; the largest was a $1.56K sell of No at 94.3¢.
The largest Yes position is pandannn with 6.7K shares; the largest No position is devin.lawson.77 with 10.7K. Ten wallets hold 77.3% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 74 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 19, 7:56 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 139 points, 2 Jun 2026 – 19 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Jun 2026 | 27.5% |
| 19 Oct 2026 | 4.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| devin.lawson.77 | No | 10.71K |
| FATMAN | No | 6.67K |
| pandannn | Yes | 6.67K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-countries-will-recognize-israel-by-december-31
4 more markets, none above 2.8%.
| wan123 |
| Yes |
| 6.13K |
| prophet-spaces | No | 3.32K |
| RememberAmalek | Yes | 2.84K |
| MEPP | No | 2.49K |
| Fullvie | Yes | 2.05K |
| gfdgfddd | Yes | 1.2K |
| aaIrbet | Yes | 1.04K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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