Analytics
Yes is at 55.5%, down 4 points from 59.5% when the market opened on 28 Oct 2026.
Across the 9 daily closes on record from 28 Oct 2026 to 5 Nov 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 59.5% on 28 Oct 2026 and the lowest 42% on 31 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 10 points up, to 58% on 2 Nov 2026.
It is one of 4 markets under “Next Israeli government formed by...?”.
$1.31K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $33.67K since listing. The order book holds $29.41K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 336 trades, $5.91K bought Yes and $4.84K bought No; the largest was a $1.34K buy of Yes at 50.5¢.
The largest Yes position is denizz with 2.6K shares; the largest No position is DorTovim with 1.4K. Ten wallets hold 80.5% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Mar 2027, 116 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Nov 5, 12:37 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 9 points, 28 Oct 2026 – 5 Nov 2026, chart shows 35%–65%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 28 Oct 2026 | 59.5% |
| 5 Nov 2026 | 55.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| denizz | Yes | 2.56K |
| HolyMoses7VerifiedVerified Polymarket profile | Yes | 1.94K |
| DorTovim |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a new Government of Israel is officially sworn in by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” To qualify, a newly formed government, headed by a Prime Minister and composed of appointed ministers must be sworn in before the Knesset within this market's timeframe. Only a government formed as a result of the 2026 Knesset election or any subsequent election will qualify. Caretaker or transitional governments, including the outgoing government continuing to serve in a caretaker capacity, will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel or the Knesset; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/next-israeli-government-formed-by
| No |
| 1.42K |
| Lerney | No | 1.09K |
| Polished-Foray | No | 690 |
| Emerald Scout EF69 | No | 486.58 |
| xtxpleasecallme | No | 471.17 |
| Loving-Citron | No | 393.24 |
| yeeza | Yes | 360.53 |
| 881112 | No | 345.53 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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