Analytics
Yes is at 1.1%, down 28 points from 29.5% when the market opened on 2 Jun 2026.
Across the 147 daily closes on record from 2 Jun 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 29.5% on 2 Jun 2026 and the lowest 1.1% on 28 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 1.3%; a month before, 1.4%. Its largest one-day move was 21 points down, to 8.5% on 3 Jun 2026.
It is one of 16 markets under “Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?”.
$116.67 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $17.97K since listing. The order book holds $30.87K, with a 0.8% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 234 trades, $335.49 bought Yes and $4.29K bought No; the largest was a $1.11K sell of No at 96.2¢.
The largest Yes position is thecaricature with 627 shares; the largest No position is patientman with 2.2K. Ten wallets hold 93.3% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 12:36 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 147 points, 2 Jun 2026 – 28 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Jun 2026 | 29.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 1.1% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| patientman | No | 2.16K |
| thecaricature | Yes | 627.12 |
| Dr.PNL | Yes | 394.87 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-countries-will-recognize-israel-by-december-31
3 more markets, none above 2.6%.
| Numitus1994 |
| Yes |
| 220.59 |
| peakyman | Yes | 200 |
| ghorrock | Yes | 131 |
| Jade Beacon E3EA | Yes | 129 |
| PaddyAlpha | Yes | 109.99 |
| 1BTCis1BTC | Yes | 90.47 |
| maxlang | Yes | 66.67 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
