What is the “Will GPT-6 be released by December 31?” market asking?

It asks whether the following will happen: Will GPT-6 be released by December 31? It is one of the markets in the Polymarket event “GPT-6 released by…?”. Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.

What do the Yes and No prices mean?

At the last observation Yes traded at 0.0¢ and No at 100.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 0.0% for Yes and 100.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.

When does this market close?

Trading is scheduled to close on Jan 1, 2026 UTC. After the close no new trades are accepted and the outcome is settled by the resolution source.

How does this market resolve?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is…

What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?

24h volume ($107.89K) is the dollar value of shares traded in the last 24 hours. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Who holds the biggest positions in this market?

Vultax loaded 75 public holder wallets for this market; the largest ten hold 73.8% of the loaded shares. The Holders view lists them by size on each side, and every wallet links to its trader profile.

Where does this data come from and how fresh is it?

Prices, the order book, holders and the trade tape come from Polymarket's public order book and data API. Vultax records each observation with its own timestamp (market facts last updated Aug 21, 6:19 PM UTC) and shows a value as unavailable rather than as zero when a source has not answered.

Can I trade this market on Vultax?

No. Vultax is a research and paper-trading terminal; it does not execute orders. The trade controls open the official market on Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/gpt-6-released-by) or the Vultax predictions monitor, where you can track the market and paper trade it.

Will GPT-6 be released by December 31? | Polymarket odds & analytics

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Analytics

Predictions Analytics

Will GPT-6 be released by December 31? | Polymarket odds & analytics | Vultax

Market referencewill-gpt-6-be-released-by-december-31Updated Aug 21, 2026 UTC

Closed

Scheduled close Jan 1, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Observed Yes 0¢Observed No 100¢

24h Volume

$107.9K

Scheduled close

Jan 1, 2026 UTC

Overview Prices Holders Trades

Source Evidence

Evidence coverage

Items

Fetched

Latest

16d ago

Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.

Depth

Observed

Aug 21, 2026 UTC

This resolved market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.

Trading stateMarket usability at the displayed observation.

Market state

Closed

Order book

Captured book available

Observed Yes

0.0%

The venue reports this market closed, but no resolved outcome is inferred.

Holder depthCapped public top-holder sample.

Rows loaded

Wallets

Top 10 share

74%

Yes / No shares

19.75K / 41.51

Rows reflect the positive holders returned for this market, not venue-wide open interest.

Recent tapeLatest public market trades.

Trades loaded

500

Wallets

289

Loaded notional

Reported market positionsProvider-reported rows from the displayed market-position observation.

Trader	Outcome	Shares	Avg entry	Cost basis	Last trade
goatstrat	Yes	3.42K	14.6%	$3.42K	Oct 16, 10:49 PM UTC
say	Yes	2.11K	17.5%	$2.11K

GPT-6 released by…?

Questions

Questions about this market

What is the “Will GPT-6 be released by December 31?” market asking?: It asks whether the following will happen: Will GPT-6 be released by December 31? It is one of the markets in the Polymarket event “GPT-6 released by…?”. Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.
What do the Yes and No prices mean?: At the last observation Yes traded at 0.0¢ and No at 100.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 0.0% for Yes and 100.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.
When does this market close?: Trading is scheduled to close on Jan 1, 2026 UTC. After the close no new trades are accepted and the outcome is settled by the resolution source.
How does this market resolve?: This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is…
What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?: 24h volume ($107.89K) is the dollar value of shares traded in the last 24 hours. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Top holders by valueReturned holders ranked by current holding value. Profit and win rate are unavailable for this sample.

Trader	Current holding value
latentwisdom123	$31.91
seconds-0	$5.38
Mur.	$1.08
Zijiren	$1.06
Pastel-Cabin	$1.06
monk1	$1.01
goatstrat	$0
say	$0
acal	$0
Santosbantos	$0
seventhwhiskey	$0
kuranes90	$0