Latest trade
Aug 12, 2026 UTC
The most recent trade Polymarket lists for this wallet. Checked Oct 23, 4:15 PM UTC.
Analytics
NeilCaffrey has made $15.77 on Polymarket.
Share of settled positions that closed in profit.
Losses as a share of gains across 34 settled positions.
Profit and volume as of 2026-08-12 UTC. Positions and trades are read separately; the Sources tab has their times.
From the trades and settled positions Polymarket lists for this wallet.
Aug 12, 2026 UTC
The most recent trade Polymarket lists for this wallet. Checked Oct 23, 4:15 PM UTC.
$1 median trade
Its latest 50 trades covered 35 markets; 76.0% were buys. They run from Apr 1, 2025 UTC to Aug 12, 2026 UTC. A recent sample, not the wallet's full history.
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | No | 3.23 | $0.310 | $0.24 | -$0.76 |
This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?No | sell | 22.72 | $0.999 | $22.7 | Aug 12, 2026 UTC |
Polymarket public profile
Figures shown from the accepted source observation
2026-08-12 20:12 UTC
Polymarket public position response
1 open positions returned; page complete
2026-10-23 16:15 UTC
Polymarket public trade response
50 recent fills loaded; lifetime history not established
2026-10-23 16:15 UTC
polymarket positions
36 dated points returned
Latest chart point: 2026-08-12 20:12 UTC
Profile checked . Each figure keeps its own source time.
Compare P&L with positions and recorded trades, and check the source dates. A rank or a profitable period alone does not establish repeatable returns.
Winning positions brought in $56.12 and losing ones cost $19.29 across 34 settled positions. 70.6% of them closed in profit.
The largest win was $21.67 on “Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?” (No); the largest loss, $10 on “Pam Bondi confirmed as Attorney General?” (No).
Its most recent trade on record was on 12 Aug 2026. It has traded 51 markets. Its open positions are worth $0.24 across 1 market.
Source: Polymarket's public profile and leaderboard. How to read a trader profile
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?No| buy |
| 22.73 |
| $0.044 |
| $1 |
| Aug 11, 2026 UTC |
 Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?No | buy | 16.67 | $0.060 | $1 | Jul 30, 2026 UTC |
 Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?No | buy | 4.76 | $0.210 | $1 | Jul 8, 2026 UTC |
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?No | buy | 35.71 | $0.028 | $1 | Jun 15, 2026 UTC |
 Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Yes | buy | 14.29 | $0.070 | $1 | May 2, 2026 UTC |
 Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?Yes | sell | 3.24 | $0.987 | $3.2 | Apr 12, 2026 UTC |
| Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?Yes | buy | 3.15 | $0.300 | $0.94 | Apr 11, 2026 UTC |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Yes | buy | 6.25 | $0.160 | $1 | Mar 30, 2026 UTC |
 US forces enter Iran by April 30?No | buy | 3.23 | $0.310 | $1 | Mar 30, 2026 UTC |
 Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?No | sell | 5.26 | $0.282 | $1.48 | Mar 28, 2026 UTC |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?No | buy | 5.26 | $0.190 | $1 | Mar 7, 2026 UTC |
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?No | buy | 18.87 | $0.053 | $1 | Feb 28, 2026 UTC |
 Maduro out in 2025?Yes | buy | 8.33 | $0.120 | $1 | Nov 10, 2025 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No | buy | 3.23 | $0.310 | $1 | Nov 10, 2025 UTC |
 Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?Yes | sell | 6.25 | $0.860 | $5.38 | Nov 10, 2025 UTC |
| Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?Yes | buy | 6.25 | $0.160 | $1 | Nov 3, 2025 UTC |
| Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?Yes | sell | 12.5 | $0.160 | $2 | Nov 3, 2025 UTC |
 Will Powell say "Recession" during October press conference?Yes | buy | 3.23 | $0.310 | $1 | Oct 29, 2025 UTC |
| Will Powell say "Feedback" during October press conference?Yes | buy | 3.03 | $0.330 | $1 | Oct 29, 2025 UTC |
| Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?Yes | buy | 12.5 | $0.080 | $1 | Oct 27, 2025 UTC |
 Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?No | buy | 5.88 | $0.170 | $1 | Oct 22, 2025 UTC |
 Will the Government shutdown end October 6-9?Yes | buy | 11.11 | $0.090 | $1 | Oct 4, 2025 UTC |
 Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% in 2025?Yes | buy | 7.14 | $0.140 | $1 | Sep 17, 2025 UTC |
 US government shutdown in 2025?Yes | buy | 1.72 | $0.580 | $1 | Sep 17, 2025 UTC |
 Bayrou out as French PM by September 30?No | buy | 14.29 | $0.070 | $1 | Aug 30, 2025 UTC |
 Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?No | sell | 1.78 | $0.979 | $1.74 | Jul 27, 2025 UTC |
 Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with European Union in July?No | buy | 3.03 | $0.330 | $1 | Jul 25, 2025 UTC |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?No | buy | 1.79 | $0.560 | $1 | Jul 18, 2025 UTC |
| Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with India in July?No | buy | 1.82 | $0.550 | $1 | Jul 16, 2025 UTC |
 Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?Yes | sell | 5.26 | $0.290 | $1.53 | Jul 16, 2025 UTC |
 Will Elon Musk create a new political party before August?No | buy | 5.8 | $0.690 | $4 | Jul 1, 2025 UTC |
 US-China trade deal before June?No | buy | 1K | $0.001 | $1 | May 12, 2025 UTC |
 Pakistan military strike on India by Friday?No | buy | 125 | $0.008 | $1 | May 8, 2025 UTC |
| Pakistan military strike on India by Friday?No | buy | 6.41 | $0.156 | $1 | May 6, 2025 UTC |
 Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with India before July?No | buy | 6.25 | $0.160 | $1 | May 6, 2025 UTC |
 US recession in 2025?Yes | buy | 1.52 | $0.660 | $1 | Apr 29, 2025 UTC |
 Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?Yes | sell | 1.36 | $0.982 | $1.34 | Apr 29, 2025 UTC |
 Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian election?Yes | sell | 2.88 | $0.996 | $2.87 | Apr 29, 2025 UTC |
| Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Japan before July?No | buy | 5 | $0.200 | $1 | Apr 21, 2025 UTC |
| Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?Yes | buy | 5.26 | $0.190 | $1 | Apr 21, 2025 UTC |
| US-China trade deal before June?No | sell | 2.17 | $0.660 | $1.43 | Apr 20, 2025 UTC |
| Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?Yes | buy | 1.37 | $0.730 | $1 | Apr 16, 2025 UTC |
 U.S. citizens transferred to El Salvador before July?Yes | buy | 12.5 | $0.080 | $1 | Apr 15, 2025 UTC |
| US-China trade deal before June?No | buy | 2.17 | $0.460 | $1 | Apr 12, 2025 UTC |
 Will China counter tariff the U.S. in April?Yes | sell | 1.47 | $0.997 | $1.47 | Apr 9, 2025 UTC |
| Will China counter tariff the U.S. in April?Yes | buy | 1.47 | $0.680 | $1 | Apr 7, 2025 UTC |
| US recession in 2025?Yes | buy | 2.38 | $0.420 | $1 | Apr 2, 2025 UTC |
 Wisconsin Supreme Court election: Susan Crawford vs. Brad SchimelCrawford | sell | 5.8 | $0.999 | $5.79 | Apr 2, 2025 UTC |
| Wisconsin Supreme Court election: Susan Crawford vs. Brad SchimelCrawford | buy | 5.8 | $0.860 | $4.99 | Apr 1, 2025 UTC |
2 of 4 axes ranked against the 121 wallets on the Radar board (crypto positions observed 2026-09-20); the others stay on fixed scales, as each axis says. Not drawn for this wallet: 4 of 8 axes. Missing axes are left out of the shape and the score is reduced when fewer than five are available. Observed just now. Watch only — not advice.