Analytics
Resolved Yes on 9 Apr 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 100%. Yes opened at 54.5% on 20 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 11 daily closes on record from 20 Mar 2026 to 9 Apr 2026 (10 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 100% on 9 Apr 2026 and the lowest 45.5% on 24 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 12 points down, to 45.5% on 24 Mar 2026. $269.05M traded over the market's life.
1,000 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 10, 12:33 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 11 points, 20 Mar 2026 – 9 Apr 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 20 Mar 2026 | 54.5% |
| 9 Apr 2026 | 100.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| KINGBILLIONS | No | 7.46M |
| onepingonly | No | 4.13M |
| turan92 | No | 3.57M |
| Cosmic Scout 29D0 | No | 2.37M |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-forces-enter-iran-by
| Jade Signal E0A7 | No | 1.02M |
| manongclass | No | 854.84K |
| Bakuridze | No | 811.51K |
| Only-Grandma | No | 695.19K |
| czechtrump | No | 625.75K |
| RealisticRisk | No | 600.81K |
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
