Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 18.5% on 9 Jan 2025. Before it settled, across the 359 daily closes on record from 9 Jan 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 65.5% on 7 Apr 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 17 points down, to 44% on 13 Apr 2025. $11.73M traded over the market's life.
935 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 4:29 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 359 points, 9 Jan 2025 – 1 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 9 Jan 2025 | 18.5% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| noname2024 | Yes | 79.65K |
| bbbb22212 | Yes | 74K |
| CrashOverride95 | Yes | 53.46K |
This market will resolve to “Yes”, if either of the following conditions are met: 1. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point in 2025, with the announcement made by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. 2. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2024 and Q4 2025 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q2 2025 was negative, and the Q1 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2025 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2025 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2025 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then. The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-recession-in-2025
| Boiling-Tabletop | Yes | 24.14K |
| WongKimArk | Yes | 23.74K |
| thematador | Yes | 23.24K |
| Golden Kestrel 41A3 | Yes | 22.77K |
| MareleMotan | Yes | 20.57K |
| gandalf | Yes | 15K |
| CaptBluetooth | Yes | 13.84K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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