Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Aug 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 38.5% on 10 Jun 2025. Before it settled, across the 53 daily closes on record from 10 Jun 2025 to 1 Aug 2025, the highest close was 77.5% on 4 Jul 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Aug 2025. Its largest one-day move was 27 points down, to 7.5% on 25 Jul 2025. $11.18M traded over the market's life.
745 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 2, 8:52 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 53 points, 10 Jun 2025 – 1 Aug 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Jun 2025 | 38.5% |
| 1 Aug 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| DeezzNutzz | Yes | 421.37K |
| WCBT | Yes | 117.74K |
| horiz0n | Yes | 39.27K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
On March 17, Israel announced extensive strikes on terror targets belonging to the Hamas terrorist organization in the Gaza Strip ending a previous ceasefire agreement which had been agreed on January 15 (See: https://x.com/IDF/status/1901802698237935705). This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Israel and Hamas between June 9, and July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterwards. An announced agreement to reinstate the previous agreed upon January 15th ceasefire deal will qualify. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Israel and Hamas, however a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas has been reached will suffice.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-before-august
| Yes |
| 36.38K |
| nick15 | Yes | 13.33K |
| Madshake | Yes | 9.58K |
| ModernSamson | Yes | 9.01K |
| Blond-Classmate | Yes | 8.83K |
| NeIsLoIe | Yes | 8K |
| Ronenio | Yes | 7.78K |
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