Analytics
Resolved Yes on 1 Oct 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 98.9%. Yes opened at 24.5% on 10 Jan 2025. Before it settled, across the 265 daily closes on record from 10 Jan 2025 to 1 Oct 2025, the highest close was 98.9% on 1 Oct 2025 and the lowest 12.5% on 11 Jan 2025. Its largest one-day move was 25 points up, to 56% on 4 Feb 2025. $3.51M traded over the market's life.
567 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 2, 8:36 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 265 points, 10 Jan 2025 – 1 Oct 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Jan 2025 | 24.5% |
| 1 Oct 2025 | 98.9% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| crocodi | No | 66.5K |
| Melody626 | No | 56.63K |
| Unknown-Mantle | No | 51.95K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Office of Personnel Management announces that the U.S. federal government is shut down due to a lapse in appropriations by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". If the Office of Personnel Management announces a partial shutdown this will count, however announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be the website of the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-government-shutdown-in-2025
| ciro2 | No | 12.99K |
| jd_hiler | No | 9.81K |
| Peter12345 | No | 9K |
| Sazpe | No | 8.01K |
| decartel | No | 7.68K |
| Ieras | No | 5.83K |
| lissartter | No | 5.63K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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