Analytics
For House control — Democrats, Vultax simulated buys of Yes against Polymarket's order book. These results describe the books captured during the study. Check today's quotes and the market's resolution rules separately.
58 readings, every 30 minutes, 12 September 18:51 to 13 September 23:21 UTC. Up to 20 price levels. Cost is the median average fill price minus midpoint, in cents per share, only over readings with a full fill. Fees and other traders' reactions are excluded. Percentages are rounded; these were simulations, not executed orders. A failed fill within the captured levels does not prove the entire book lacked depth. Polymarket observations are from its international exchange.
Yes is at 92.5%, up 23 points from 70% when the market opened on 19 Jul 2025.
Across the 446 daily closes on record from 19 Jul 2025 to 29 Oct 2026 (23 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 93.5% on 4 Oct 2026 and the lowest 57.5% on 19 Oct 2025. A week before that last close Yes was at 91.5%; a month before, 92.5%. Its largest one-day move was 5 points down, to 72.5% on 6 Dec 2025.
Democratic Party is the favourite of the 2 outcomes in “Which party will win the House in 2026?”, ahead of Republican Party at 7.5%.
$1.87M traded in the last 24 hours, out of $15.95M since listing. The order book holds $6.65M, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $544.08K bought Yes and $8.77K bought No; the largest was a $165.84K sell of Yes at 93.0¢.
The largest Yes position is burrito338 with 803.7K shares; the largest No position is BreakTheBank with 2.18M. Ten wallets hold 48.3% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 4 Nov 2026, 6 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 29, 5:06 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 446 points, 19 Jul 2025 – 29 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 19 Jul 2025 | 70.0% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | 92.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| BreakTheBank | No | 2.18M |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.62M |
| QQQ777 | No | 1.3M |
This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 United States midterm election. A party wins control of the United States House of Representatives if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first elected Speaker of the House of the Congress that convenes after the 2026 midterm election is affiliated. The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber. All House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress are included. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026
| burrito338 |
| Yes |
| 803.74K |
| bullishkirby | No | 452.65K |
| plumbis | Yes | 303.8K |
| scottilicious | Yes | 299.36K |
| Warlike-Horn | Yes | 245K |
| machbut | Yes | 222.39K |
| foodenjoyer | No | 179.58K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
