Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jul 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 94.7%. Yes opened at 8% on 22 Mar 2025. Before it settled, across the 102 daily closes on record from 22 Mar 2025 to 1 Jul 2025, the highest close was 13% on 16 Apr 2025 and the lowest 1.1% on 9 Jun 2025. Its largest one-day move was 6.5 points up, to 11% on 7 Apr 2025. $110.75K traded over the market's life.
38 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 2, 8:24 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 102 points, 22 Mar 2025 – 1 Jul 2025, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 22 Mar 2025 | 8.0% |
| 1 Jul 2025 | 5.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| BoredRock | Yes | 1.61K |
| IEatTrees | Yes | 572.1 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 488 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any individual holding U.S. citizenship, who is in the custody of U.S. law enforcement or correctional authorities, is transferred to El Salvador for the purpose of incarceration by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To qualify an incarcerated U.S. citizen must be transferred to El Salvador, and physically enter the terrestrial territory. Entering the maritime territory or airspace will not qualify. Any transfer meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or reversed by judicial or other actions. The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/incarcerated-us-citizens-transferred-to-el-salvador-before-july-2025
| Yes |
| 307.69 |
| Yoinked | Yes | 285.71 |
| fead | Yes | 233.52 |
| LENIN | Yes | 206.8 |
| parle | Yes | 200 |
| WIlliam | Yes | 100 |
| alexco99 | Yes | 71.43 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
