Analytics
Resolved No on 12 Nov 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 5.5% on 7 Oct 2025. Before it settled, across the 37 daily closes on record from 7 Oct 2025 to 12 Nov 2025, the highest close was 33% on 10 Nov 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 12 Nov 2025. Its largest one-day move was 31 points down, to 2.4% on 11 Nov 2025. $11.77M traded over the market's life.
604 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Nov 13, 8:30 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 37 points, 7 Oct 2025 – 12 Nov 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 7 Oct 2025 | 5.5% |
| 12 Nov 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.87M |
| Defileo | Yes | 379.4K |
| Cookedtan | Yes | 130.52K |
| broccoliii | Yes | 43.78K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to the calendar date range (ET) of the first day after September 30, 2025 which the U.S. The Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces that the U.S. federal government is not shut down due to a lapse in appropriations. Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown. The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545
| asdokasjk | Yes | 35K |
| wokerjoesleeper | Yes | 32.88K |
| WillMont | Yes | 30.21K |
| chph1988 | Yes | 25.19K |
| Attractive-Trowel | Yes | 24.84K |
| Rockysouth | Yes | 23.2K |
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