Analytics
Resolved Yes on 10 May 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.9%. Yes opened at 5.5% on 6 May 2025. Before it settled, across the 5 daily closes on record from 6 May 2025 to 10 May 2025, the highest close was 99.9% on 10 May 2025 and the lowest 5.5% on 6 May 2025. Its largest one-day move was 84 points up, to 89.4% on 7 May 2025. $17.13M traded over the market's life.
493 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 11, 8:20 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 5 points, 6 May 2025 – 10 May 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 May 2025 | 5.5% |
| 10 May 2025 | 99.9% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Fogesh | No | 1.54M |
| crashoutb4cashout | No | 440.61K |
| mike777 | No | 333.48K |
| Jojiv | No | 217.67K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pakistan initiates an airstrike or missile strike on Indian soil, airspace, or maritime territory, or against any Indian embassies or consulates, between May 4 and May 9, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Pakistani military forces that impact Indian territory, airspace, or maritime assets. This includes, for example, a Pakistani airstrike on a site in India or a Pakistani missile landing on Indian territory. Actions such as artillery fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, sanctions, small arms fire, or purely diplomatic confrontations will not count toward resolution. The strike must be either officially acknowledged by the Pakistani government or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/pakistan-military-strike-on-india-by-friday
| rayhanzaman | No | 201.94K |
| innards | No | 164.51K |
| BMBW | No | 125.11K |
| Gui88 | No | 119.3K |
| BuyLow | No | 112.6K |
| Sysysysysysy | No | 109.51K |
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