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| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will Baidu be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026? | No | 526.44 | $0.954 | $509.33 | +$7.33 |
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This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Meta's Watermelon released by November 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 100 | $0.790 | $79 | 20h ago |
 |
| No |
| 586.71 |
| $0.682 |
| $222.95 |
| -$177.05 |
 US imposes new sanctions on China by September 30? | No | 236 | $0.847 | $218.3 | +$18.3 |
 Next Alibaba Qwen Max (3.9+) released by October 31, 2026? | No | 454.55 | $0.220 | $211.36 | +$111.36 |
 Canada cuts off or throttles electricity to the US by December 31? | No | 227.79 | $0.878 | $209.57 | +$9.57 |
| Next Alibaba Qwen Max (3.9+) released by September 30, 2026? | No | 213 | $0.939 | $187.44 | -$12.56 |
 Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 200 | $0.880 | $177 | +$1 |
 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | Yes | 307.69 | $0.650 | $140 | -$60 |
 Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 129.87 | $0.770 | $107.79 | +$7.79 |
 Will Alibaba be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027? | No | 126.58 | $0.790 | $104.43 | +$4.43 |
| Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 185.19 | $0.540 | $102.78 | +$2.78 |
 Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 119.05 | $0.840 | $101.79 | +$1.79 |
 Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | Yes | 168.91 | $0.592 | $100.08 | +$0.08 |
 Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 136.99 | $0.730 | $100 | $0 |
 Will Baidu be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027? | No | 117.65 | $0.850 | $100 | $0 |
 Will BYD be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027? | No | 114.94 | $0.870 | $99.43 | -$0.57 |
 Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? | No | 100 | $0.941 | $95.15 | +$1.05 |
 Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 243.9 | $0.410 | $95.12 | -$4.88 |
 Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1510? | No | 100 | $0.840 | $89 | +$5 |
| Will claude-fable-5.1-max be the best AI model on September 14, 2026? | Yes | 100 | $0.830 | $86 | +$3 |
| Meta's Watermelon released by November 30, 2026? | Yes | 100 | $0.790 | $85.5 | +$6.5 |
| Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 107.53 | $0.930 | $83.87 | -$16.13 |
| Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026? | Yes | 128.21 | $0.780 | $80.77 | -$19.23 |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1500? | No | 100 | $0.740 | $80.5 | +$6.5 |
 Trump declassifies new UFO files by September 15? | No | 100 | $0.800 | $77 | -$3 |
| buy |
| 92.96 |
| $0.830 |
| $77.16 |
| 20h ago |
 Will Z.ai be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?Yes | buy | 48.81 | $0.170 | $8.3 | 20h ago |
 Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 50 | $0.260 | $13 | 20h ago |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1515 by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 100 | $0.330 | $33 | 20h ago |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 100 | $0.410 | $41 | 20h ago |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1505 by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 60 | $0.600 | $36 | 20h ago |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 100 | $0.650 | $65 | 20h ago |
| Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?No | buy | 100 | $0.300 | $30 | 20h ago |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1510?No | buy | 100 | $0.840 | $84 | 20h ago |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1500?No | buy | 100 | $0.740 | $74 | 20h ago |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?Yes | buy | 100 | $0.670 | $67 | 20h ago |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Yes | buy | 100 | $0.890 | $89 | 20h ago |
 Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 73.5 | $0.670 | $49.25 | 20h ago |
 Will Google be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?No | buy | 80 | $0.380 | $30.4 | 20h ago |
 Japan declassifies new UFO files in 2026?No | buy | 10 | $0.920 | $9.2 | 20h ago |
| Trump declassifies new UFO files by September 30?No | buy | 100 | $0.243 | $24.3 | 20h ago |
| Trump declassifies new UFO files by September 15?No | buy | 100 | $0.800 | $80 | 20h ago |
 Will Trump rename an ocean in 2026?No | sell | 108.69 | $0.950 | $103.26 | 21h ago |
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1520 by December 31?Yes | sell | 212.43 | $0.943 | $200.31 | 21h ago |
 Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?Yes | buy | 100 | $0.090 | $9 | 3d ago |
| Will Z.ai have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of August 31?Yes | buy | 95.1 | $0.010 | $0.95 | 3d ago |
 Will Tencent have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of August 31?Yes | buy | 13.3 | $0.018 | $0.24 | 3d ago |
 Will DeepSeek have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of August 31?Yes | buy | 47 | $0.010 | $0.47 | 3d ago |
| Will Alibaba be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?Yes | buy | 100 | $0.500 | $50 | 5d ago |
| Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?Yes | buy | 30 | $0.700 | $21 | 5d ago |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Yes | buy | 100 | $0.870 | $87 | 5d ago |
 Will Claude go down 8-10 times in August?Yes | buy | 50 | $0.190 | $9.5 | 9d ago |
| Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?No | buy | 100 | $0.941 | $94.1 | 9d ago |
 US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?No | sell | 105.26 | $0.995 | $104.73 | 9d ago |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?No | sell | 117.84 | $0.966 | $113.83 | 9d ago |
| Canada cuts off or throttles electricity to the US by December 31?No | buy | 110.14 | $0.908 | $100 | 11d ago |
| US imposes new sanctions on China by September 30?No | buy | 115.52 | $0.866 | $100 | 11d ago |
| Will Trump rename an ocean in 2026?No | buy | 108.7 | $0.920 | $100 | 11d ago |
| Will BYD be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?No | buy | 114.94 | $0.870 | $100 | 13d ago |
| Will Baidu be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?No | buy | 117.65 | $0.850 | $100 | 13d ago |
| Will Alibaba be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?No | buy | 126.58 | $0.790 | $100 | 13d ago |
| Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Yes | buy | 168.91 | $0.592 | $100 | 13d ago |
| Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?No | buy | 166.09 | $0.602 | $100 | 13d ago |
| Canada cuts off or throttles electricity to the US by December 31?No | buy | 117.65 | $0.850 | $100 | 13d ago |
| US imposes new sanctions on China by September 30?No | buy | 120.48 | $0.830 | $100 | 13d ago |
| Next Alibaba Qwen Flash (3.8+) released by September 30, 2026?No | sell | 95.19 | $0.010 | $0.95 | 14d ago |
 Will US Bank fail by end of 2026?Yes | buy | 84.28 | $0.090 | $7.59 | 14d ago |
| Will US Bank fail by end of 2026?Yes | buy | 112.21 | $0.089 | $10 | 14d ago |
| US bank failure by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 136.99 | $0.730 | $100 | 14d ago |
| US bank failure by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 278.25 | $0.719 | $200 | 14d ago |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No | buy | 119.05 | $0.840 | $100 | 14d ago |
 Will Trump say "China" or "Chinese" during remarks at NASA?Yes | buy | 162.62 | $0.615 | $100 | 14d ago |
| Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 9, 2026?No | buy | 333.33 | $0.300 | $100 | 14d ago |
| Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?No | buy | 125 | $0.800 | $100 | 14d ago |