Analytics
Yes is at 16.5%, down 33 points from 49.5% when the market opened on 18 Sep 2026.
Across the 38 daily closes on record from 18 Sep 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 49.5% on 18 Sep 2026 and the lowest 14.5% on 23 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 15%; a month before, 16.5%. Its largest one-day move was 34 points down, to 15.5% on 19 Sep 2026.
It is one of 3 markets under “OpenAI announces bankruptcy by...?”.
$101.57K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $54.69K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 215 trades, $6.27K bought Yes and $19.52K bought No; the largest was a $8.4K buy of No at 84.0¢.
The largest Yes position is 1nvoker1 with 12.6K shares; the largest No position is Car with 14.3K. Ten wallets hold 93.6% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2029.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 7:20 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 38 points, 18 Sep 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 18 Sep 2026 | 49.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 16.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| CarVerifiedVerified Polymarket profile | No | 14.31K |
| 1nvoker1 | Yes | 12.62K |
| SmartBoyBilly |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents OpenAI. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/openai-announces-bankruptcy-by
| Yes |
| 3.85K |
| Beyonddream | No | 2K |
| Cobalt Falcon 6C92 | Yes | 1.51K |
| Leclerc04 | Yes | 1.05K |
| lissartter | No | 848.05 |
| Coral Pulse 9519 | Yes | 588.24 |
| PaddyAlpha | No | 500.05 |
| PMTraderAdam | No | 400 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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