Analytics
Yes is at 5.7%, down 11 points from 17% when the market opened on 2 Oct 2026.
Across the 19 daily closes on record from 2 Oct 2026 to 25 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 17% on 2 Oct 2026 and the lowest 1.5% on 21 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 11%. Its largest one-day move was 9.5 points down, to 7.5% on 3 Oct 2026.
$55.92 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $2.66K since listing. The order book holds $333.93, with a 9.6% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 66 trades, $127.94 bought Yes and $821.6 bought No.
The largest Yes position is AJSV with 260 shares; the largest No position is Inchoroi with 276. Ten wallets hold 80.6% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Nov 2026, 7 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 25, 9:44 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 19 points, 2 Oct 2026 – 25 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | 17.0% |
| 25 Oct 2026 | 5.8% |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially imposes new sanctions of any form against China between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Sanctions are official government measures that restrict economic activity, financial transactions, trade, travel, or diplomatic engagement with China. Qualifying sanctions include comprehensive economic embargoes restricting most trade and financial transactions; sectoral sanctions targeting specific industries (e.g., energy, finance, defense, or technology); asset freezes and blocking of property owned by China or Chinese citizens; trade restrictions including export controls, import bans, or tariffs imposed explicitly as sanctions; financial sanctions including restrictions on banking relationships, access to financial systems, or international lending; travel bans and visa restrictions; and arms embargoes. Secondary sanctions against third-party countries or entities designated for dealings with China will qualify. The expansion in scope of previously existing sanctions against China will qualify; however, the renewal of existing sanctions without modification will not qualify. The following will not qualify: the non-renewal or expiration of licenses or other sanction-exemptions; the designation of new specific entities to be sanctioned under an existing rule absent new sanctions; and enforcement settlements or civil penalties for past conduct. The passage of an official act/executive order authorizing sanctions on China within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of when the sanctions come into effect. The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-imposes-new-sanctions-on-china-by-october-31
| Perypery |
| Yes |
| 145.72 |
| 0xrc | No | 136.71 |
| from00 | No | 111.12 |
| sety | No | 100 |
| heroka | No | 55.92 |
| Quick-Epic | No | 55.46 |
| Bright Voyager E709 | Yes | 54.62 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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