Analytics
Yes is at 22.5%, down 4 points from 26.5% when the market opened on 11 Jul 2026.
Across the 110 daily closes on record from 11 Jul 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 48.5% on 19 Jul 2026 and the lowest 10.5% on 12 Jul 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 23.5%; a month before, 13.5%. Its largest one-day move was 24 points up, to 46.5% on 4 Aug 2026.
It is one of 2 markets under “Will a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31?”.
$505.12 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $86.22K since listing. The order book holds $2.83K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $4.09K bought Yes and $4.97K bought No.
The largest Yes position is chito9 with 1.4K shares; the largest No position is ArmageddonRewardsBilly with 2.1K. Ten wallets hold 61.3% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 63 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 11:35 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 110 points, 11 Jul 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 11 Jul 2026 | 26.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 22.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly | No | 2.13K |
| Investnow | No | 1.68K |
| StoneMarble | No | 1.66K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Chinese company owns a model that ranks within the top 3, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, ByteDance, Baidu, Moonshot, Z.ai, DeepSeek, Meituan, Xiaomi, StepFun, Tencent, and MiniMax. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names will be used as a final tiebreaker. This market resolves to “Yes” only if a Chinese company’s model occupies one of the top three positions under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-a-chinese-company-have-the-best-ai-model-by-december-31
| chito9 |
| Yes |
| 1.43K |
| lamyk | No | 1.42K |
| Flamboyant-Warming | Yes | 1.4K |
| Flamboyant-Night | No | 1.22K |
| Donintello | Yes | 1.05K |
| lukas11 | No | 828.07 |
| HerrieDavis | Yes | 477.16 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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