Analytics
Yes is at 15%, up 3 points from 12% when the market opened on 20 Sep 2026.
Across the 37 daily closes on record from 20 Sep 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 40.5% on 21 Sep 2026 and the lowest 12% on 20 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 17%; a month before, 25.5%. Its largest one-day move was 29 points up, to 40.5% on 21 Sep 2026.
It is one of 2 markets under “OpenAI or Anthropic announces recursive self-improvement by...?”.
$4.23K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $1.09K, with a 8.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 105 trades, $196.81 bought Yes and $2.19K bought No.
The largest Yes position is AlphaGooo with 740 shares; the largest No position is Lexington with 1.3K. Ten wallets hold 91.8% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 8:36 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 37 points, 20 Sep 2026 – 28 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–50%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | 12.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 15.0% |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or Anthropic, or an official representative of either company, announces that the company has achieved recursive self-improvement by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify. A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/openai-or-anthropic-announces-recursive-self-improvement-by
| Useful-Skating |
| Yes |
| 500 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 283.61 |
| folioquant | Yes | 216 |
| youtube-trader | Yes | 143.43 |
| from00 | Yes | 100 |
| RATHMA4 | No | 100 |
| wrfcimo | Yes | 97.19 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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