Analytics
The OpenAI side is at 48%, down 7.5 points from 55.5% when the market opened on 19 Sep 2026.
Across the 31 daily closes on record from 19 Sep 2026 to 25 Oct 2026 (7 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 60% on 22 Sep 2026 and the lowest 39.5% on 12 Oct 2026. A week before that last close the OpenAI side was at 43.5%; a month before, 59.5%. Its largest one-day move was 9 points up, to 49.5% on 14 Oct 2026.
$158.24 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $2.11K since listing. The order book holds $459.87, with a 8.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 39 trades, $362.9 bought OpenAI and $195.87 bought Anthropic.
The largest OpenAI position is AJSV with 108 shares; the largest Anthropic position is from00 with 100.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2028.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 25, 6:22 PM UTC
The paper ticket needs a verified Yes / No pair, which this market does not have here.
Open in PredictionsDaily closes of the OpenAI price, Polymarket CLOB, 31 points, 19 Sep 2026 – 25 Oct 2026, chart shows 30%–70%
| Observed | OpenAI price |
|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | 55.5% |
| 25 Oct 2026 | 48.0% |
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI, or an official representative of OpenAI, announces that OpenAI has achieved recursive self-improvement before Anthropic does so. This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic, or an official representative of Anthropic, announces that Anthropic has achieved recursive self-improvement before OpenAI does so. If neither company makes a qualifying announcement by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or if both make qualifying announcements on the same calendar day, this market will resolve 50-50. A qualifying announcement by any other company does not end the race or affect resolution. Recursive self-improvement means a capability, as described in the company's announcement, in which the company's AI autonomously conducts the research and development needed to materially improve the general capabilities of its most capable or near-frontier AI systems, or to produce a more capable successor, with the improved system able to drive further such improvements. Humans may set high-level goals and provide resources, oversight, and approval, but must not supply the substantive research choices or the technical solution. Improvements that are toy, narrow, sandboxed, proof-of-concept, or limited to prompts, skills, or benchmark scores will not qualify. A qualifying announcement must describe the capability as currently achieved in an official capacity. Statements that AI is assisting, accelerating, or writing code for the company's research, statements of future plans or expectations, speculation, interviewer characterizations, leaks, model outputs, and third-party claims will not qualify. A public release, a named model, a technical demonstration, and independent verification are not required. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and Anthropic and/or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/openai-vs-anthropic-first-to-announce-recursive-self-improvement
| gfdgfvfvssdd |
| Anthropic |
| 24 |
| S888 | Anthropic | 23.28 |
| youtube-trader | OpenAI | 20 |
| dec335 | Anthropic | 10 |
| Flashy-Aunt | Anthropic | 7 |
| Quiet Meteor 2709 | Anthropic | 5.61 |
| ionlyfade | OpenAI | 5 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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