Analytics
Yes is at 56.8%, up 5.3 points from 51.5% when the market opened on 15 Aug 2026.
Across the 69 daily closes on record from 15 Aug 2026 to 23 Oct 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 99% on 18 Sep 2026 and the lowest 12.7% on 20 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 46.5%; a month before, 66%. Its largest one-day move was 52 points down, to 31.3% on 14 Oct 2026.
$528.83 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $9.05K since listing. The order book holds $358.06, with a 6.4% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 191 trades, $1.63K bought Yes and $748.89 bought No.
The largest Yes position is nhuaormallfens with 293 shares; the largest No position is from00 with 455. Ten wallets hold 67.4% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Nov 2026, 9 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 23, 9:56 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 69 points, 15 Aug 2026 – 23 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 15 Aug 2026 | 51.5% |
| 23 Oct 2026 | 56.8% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| from00 | No | 454.55 |
| Forthright-Silkworm | No | 358.4 |
| nhuaormallfens | Yes | 292.9 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Alibaba's next Qwen Max model (3.9+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Qwen" and "Max," be the flagship model of Alibaba's core Qwen Max tier, and be designated as version 3.9 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.9 or higher named in the same manner as Qwen3.7-Max or Qwen3.8-Max-Preview would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Qwen4-Max, while models whose name does not include "Max" or which retain a version designation below 3.9, such as Qwen3.8-Max, including its stable, open-weight, or snapshot re-releases, or Qwen3.8-Max-Preview, will not qualify. Derivative lines such as VL, Coder, Omni, or other specialized variants, such as qwen-vl-max, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Alibaba as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Alibaba, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/next-alibaba-qwen-max-3pt9-released-byptptpt
| fpkgvip |
| Yes |
| 291.58 |
| Milksheen | No | 240 |
| tradetosurvive1 | No | 210 |
| superba | Yes | 205.4 |
| KiernanMeister | Yes | 200 |
| 0x998b15b43cdfa68 | Yes | 150.63 |
| 2B9S | No | 145 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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