Analytics
Yes is at 37%, down 4 points from 41% when the market opened on 3 Apr 2026.
Across the 204 daily closes on record from 3 Apr 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 95.5% on 6 Apr 2026 and the lowest 20.5% on 13 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 44.5%; a month before, 31.5%. Its largest one-day move was 54 points up, to 95% on 4 Apr 2026.
It is one of 3 markets under “Will any AI model reach ___ Coding Arena Score by December 31?”.
$2.36K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $129.04K since listing. The order book holds $2.76K, with a 2.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $3.64K bought Yes and $11.21K bought No; the largest was a $1.68K buy of No at 58.0¢.
The largest Yes position is BrownBees with 8.2K shares; the largest No position is SingletonFamilyFund with 4.4K. Ten wallets hold 81.5% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 11:00 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 204 points, 3 Apr 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Apr 2026 | 41.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 37.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| BrownBees | Yes | 8.21K |
| SingletonFamilyFund | No | 4.38K |
| Djibooty | No | 2.68K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Coding" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-any-ai-model-reach-coding-arena-score-by-december-31
| The-Joker |
| No |
| 2.11K |
| Flamboyant-Warming | Yes | 1.61K |
| ifyouloveme | No | 999.95 |
| troim | No | 766.12 |
| dedidanc | Yes | 650 |
| WageringGrandma | Yes | 565.26 |
| SubashChandraBose | No | 497.52 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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