Analytics
Yes is at 15.5%, down 26 points from 41% when the market opened on 14 Jul 2026.
Across the 107 daily closes on record from 14 Jul 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 50% on 15 Jul 2026 and the lowest 5.5% on 21 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 16.5%; a month before, 12.5%. Its largest one-day move was 40 points down, to 8.5% on 17 Jul 2026.
It is one of 10 markets under “Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?”.
$218.15 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $98.71K since listing. The order book holds $10.88K, with a 3.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 251 trades, $8.71K bought Yes and $11.26K bought No; the largest was a $7.57K sell of No at 78.0¢.
The largest Yes position is Breakable-Bottomline with 713 shares; the largest No position is FrozenParasite with 1.1K. Ten wallets hold 87.6% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jul 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 1:17 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 107 points, 14 Jul 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 14 Jul 2026 | 41.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 15.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| FrozenParasite | No | 1.08K |
| Breakable-Bottomline | Yes | 712.81 |
| SnapElectionAvoider | No | 532.89 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified company is fully removed from the list entitled “Entities Identified as Chinese Military Companies Operating in the United States in Accordance with Section 1260H of the William M. (Mac) Thornberry National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021” by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying removal occurs when the specified company named in the list on June 8, 2026 (available here: https://www.war.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/4511232/dow-releases-list-of-chinese-military-companies-in-accordance-with-section-1260/) no longer appears on an updated official Section 1260H list. A qualifying removal must be reflected in a subsequent list published by the U.S. Department of Defense in the Federal Register or on its official website, in an official DoD announcement or Federal Register notice of delisting. Removal of a subsidiary or affiliate entry while the specified company remains listed will not qualify. Removal of a company will qualify even if formerly affiliated subsidiaries remain listed as separate entries. An entity that ceases to appear solely due to renaming, merger with another listed entity, or transfer of the designation to a successor, parent, or affiliate entity will not be considered removed. A removal will qualify regardless of whether it is later retracted or withdrawn. For the purposes of this market, a company’s status will be entirely determined by its presence on the aforementioned list. If the enforcement of its designation is suspended without being removed from the aforementioned list, that will not qualify as a removal. If no qualifying announcement or list republishing occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and official information from the Department of Defense (https://www.defense.gov) (a.k.a. Department of War, https://www.war.gov).
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 485.26 |
| MaxEnt | No | 420 |
| rocky42002 | Yes | 300 |
| hr26g2re62de | Yes | 278.99 |
| Dr.PNL | Yes | 167.05 |
| from00 | No | 114.94 |
| Haradwaith | No | 57.47 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-removed-from-chinese-military-companies-list-by-june-30-2027-20260706223230550
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