Analytics
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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will fewer than 150 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?No | sell | 2.56 | $0.003 | $0.01 | Jul 16, 2026 |
 |
| sell |
| 1.53 |
| $0.021 |
| $0.03 |
| Jul 16, 2026 |
 Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Yes | sell | 3.44 | $0.130 | $0.45 | Jul 16, 2026 |
 Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?Yes | sell | 15.38 | $0.021 | $0.32 | Jul 16, 2026 |
 US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 3.27 | $0.210 | $0.69 | Jul 16, 2026 |
| Iran successfully targets shipping on July 15?Yes | buy | 1.54 | $0.650 | $1 | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Yes | buy | 3.45 | $0.290 | $1 | Jul 13, 2026 |
 Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?No | buy | 2.86 | $0.700 | $2 | Jul 13, 2026 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?No | sell | 3.22 | $0.810 | $2.61 | Jul 10, 2026 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 3.28 | $0.610 | $2 | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Will fewer than 150 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?No | buy | 2.56 | $0.780 | $2 | Jul 9, 2026 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?No | buy | 3.23 | $0.620 | $2 | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?Yes | buy | 15.38 | $0.130 | $2 | Jul 4, 2026 |
 Will Wavel Ramkalawan win the 2025 Seychelles presidential election?Yes | buy | 9.68 | $0.310 | $3 | Sep 12, 2025 |
 Will Israel carry out an airstrike on the West Bank by September 30?Yes | buy | 5.56 | $0.180 | $1 | Sep 12, 2025 |
 Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025?Yes | sell | 4.32 | $0.927 | $4 | Sep 9, 2025 |
 Israel strikes Yemen by August 15?Yes | buy | 9.52 | $0.210 | $2 | Aug 12, 2025 |
 Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by August 31?Yes | buy | 9.17 | $0.109 | $1 | Aug 11, 2025 |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 31?Yes | buy | 18.08 | $0.130 | $2.35 | Aug 11, 2025 |
 Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15?Yes | sell | 6.05 | $0.884 | $5.35 | Aug 9, 2025 |
| Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15?Yes | buy | 6.05 | $0.309 | $1.87 | Aug 8, 2025 |
 Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?Yes | sell | 13.35 | $0.078 | $1.04 | Aug 8, 2025 |
 Another successful Houthi attack on shipping in July?Yes | buy | 333.33 | $0.003 | $1 | Aug 2, 2025 |
 US forces in Iran in 2025?Yes | sell | 10.41 | $0.080 | $0.83 | Aug 2, 2025 |
 Will the U.S. invade Iran in 2025?Yes | sell | 14.15 | $0.070 | $0.99 | Aug 2, 2025 |
| Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025?Yes | buy | 4.33 | $0.645 | $2.79 | Jul 23, 2025 |
 Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025?No | sell | 4.65 | $0.600 | $2.79 | Jul 23, 2025 |
| Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025?No | buy | 4.66 | $0.640 | $2.98 | Jul 22, 2025 |
 Will no leader be out in 2025?No | sell | 4.2 | $0.710 | $2.98 | Jul 21, 2025 |
 Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2025?Yes | buy | 9.42 | $0.330 | $3.11 | Jul 12, 2025 |
 America Party candidate on a federal or gubernatorial ballot in 2025?No | sell | 3.35 | $0.930 | $3.12 | Jul 12, 2025 |
| Will no leader be out in 2025?No | buy | 4.2 | $0.690 | $2.9 | Jul 9, 2025 |
 Another US military action against Iran before August?Yes | sell | 51.28 | $0.056 | $2.89 | Jul 8, 2025 |
| America Party candidate on a federal or gubernatorial ballot in 2025?No | buy | 3.35 | $0.650 | $2.18 | Jul 8, 2025 |
 Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday?Yes | buy | 7.75 | $0.129 | $1 | Jul 4, 2025 |
| Another US military action against Iran before August?Yes | buy | 51.28 | $0.039 | $2 | Jul 2, 2025 |
 Will Israel or Iran break the ceasefire first?Iran | sell | 5.91 | $0.370 | $2.19 | Jul 2, 2025 |
 Elon forms new party within 1 day of the spending bill passing?Yes | buy | 4.17 | $0.240 | $1 | Jul 2, 2025 |
 Will Elon Musk create a new political party before August?Yes | sell | 3.12 | $0.320 | $1 | Jul 2, 2025 |
 Abdul-Malik al-Houthi out as leader of the Houthi government before August?Yes | buy | 11.11 | $0.090 | $1 | Jul 1, 2025 |
| Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?Yes | buy | 11.9 | $0.084 | $1 | Jul 1, 2025 |
| Will Elon Musk create a new political party before August?Yes | buy | 3.13 | $0.320 | $1 | Jul 1, 2025 |
| Will Israel or Iran break the ceasefire first?Iran | buy | 5.92 | $0.370 | $2.19 | Jun 30, 2025 |
| Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?Yes | sell | 10 | $0.124 | $1.24 | Jun 30, 2025 |
 U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy before July?Yes | sell | 5.65 | $0.004 | $0.02 | Jun 30, 2025 |
 Another Houthi strike on Israel before July?Yes | sell | 7.54 | $0.010 | $0.08 | Jun 30, 2025 |
 Iranian coup attempt before July?Yes | sell | 18.18 | $0.008 | $0.15 | Jun 29, 2025 |
 Strike on Israel's Dimonah nuclear base in June?Yes | sell | 9.33 | $0.012 | $0.11 | Jun 29, 2025 |
 Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?Yes | sell | 15.74 | $0.006 | $0.09 | Jun 29, 2025 |
 UK strike on Iran before July?Yes | sell | 31.63 | $0.001 | $0.03 | Jun 29, 2025 |