Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Oct 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.9%. Yes opened at 28.5% on 9 Aug 2025. Before it settled, across the 54 daily closes on record from 9 Aug 2025 to 1 Oct 2025, the highest close was 28.5% on 9 Aug 2025 and the lowest 1.1% on 1 Oct 2025. Its largest one-day move was 16 points up, to 27% on 9 Sep 2025. $38.47K traded over the market's life.
23 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 2, 12:45 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 54 points, 9 Aug 2025 – 1 Oct 2025, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 9 Aug 2025 | 28.5% |
| 1 Oct 2025 | 1.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| rfnoone | Yes | 2.96K |
| Hallristningar | Yes | 544.21 |
| lissartter | Yes | 488.37 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of the West Bank between August 8 and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact the ground territory of the West Bank (e.g., if a weapons depot on West Bank soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on West Bank territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity as to whether a qualifying strike occurred, this market may remain open after resolution time for confirming evidence.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-israel-carry-out-an-airstrike-on-the-west-bank-by-september-30
| Yes |
| 150 |
| inStormyweTrust | Yes | 149 |
| Mayito | Yes | 71.43 |
| Stoikos | Yes | 64 |
| Ancient-Pineapple | Yes | 46.5 |
| PapayaGenocid | Yes | 19.29 |
| sipma | Yes | 16.67 |
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