Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 11.5% on 19 Jun 2025. Before it settled, across the 198 daily closes on record from 19 Jun 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 16.5% on 23 Jun 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 28 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 8 points up, to 16.5% on 23 Jun 2025. $852.96K traded over the market's life.
187 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 8:31 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 198 points, 19 Jun 2025 – 1 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 19 Jun 2025 | 11.5% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.4% |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran between June 18 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of June 18, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-invade-iran-in-2025
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
| highpredicts | Yes | 9K |
| Muddy-Yin | Yes | 5K |
| Witnoutinternet | Yes | 3.32K |
| invet1234 | Yes | 2.83K |
| gv3 | Yes | 2K |
| oak | Yes | 1.88K |
| Cryptojourney | Yes | 1.43K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
