Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Aug 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 16% on 27 Jun 2025. Before it settled, across the 36 daily closes on record from 27 Jun 2025 to 1 Aug 2025, the highest close was 22.5% on 28 Jun 2025 and the lowest 0.3% on 1 Aug 2025. Its largest one-day move was 11 points down, to 11.5% on 29 Jun 2025. $315.62K traded over the market's life.
126 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 2, 8:54 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 36 points, 27 Jun 2025 – 1 Aug 2025, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Jun 2025 | 16.0% |
| 1 Aug 2025 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Wasserhous | Yes | 9.12K |
| cryptofish7 | Yes | 4.74K |
| news-trader | Yes | 3.27K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory or against any Iranian embassies or consulates between June 26, 7:00 PM ET and, July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by the US military on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/another-us-military-action-against-iran-before-august
| Yes |
| 1.86K |
| Pkerr | Yes | 1.44K |
| zagoon | Yes | 1.3K |
| Thin-Membrane | Yes | 1.24K |
| traoly89444 | Yes | 1.13K |
| Serene-Deduce | Yes | 1.05K |
| Yankow | Yes | 1.05K |
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