Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jul 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 97.9%. Yes opened at 15% on 12 Jun 2025. Before it settled, across the 20 daily closes on record from 12 Jun 2025 to 1 Jul 2025, the highest close was 48.9% on 22 Jun 2025 and the lowest 0.4% on 26 Jun 2025. Its largest one-day move was 42 points up, to 48.9% on 22 Jun 2025. $213.43K traded over the market's life.
27 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 2, 8:24 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 20 points, 12 Jun 2025 – 1 Jul 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 12 Jun 2025 | 15.0% |
| 1 Jul 2025 | 2.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| APEAPE | Yes | 285.46 |
| Tamsn | Yes | 260 |
| jrmy | Yes | 213.16 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 165.28 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, Iraq, or a full evacuation is otherwise confirmed by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-evacuates-baghdad-embassy-before-july
| Henri03 | Yes | 77.31 |
| Egud | Yes | 68.44 |
| ICONTACT | Yes | 64 |
| subibisu | Yes | 61.59 |
| Makhia | Yes | 53.68 |
| dersimi | Yes | 50.51 |
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