Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jul 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 22.5% on 16 Jun 2025. Before it settled, across the 16 daily closes on record from 16 Jun 2025 to 1 Jul 2025, the highest close was 39.5% on 18 Jun 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Jul 2025. Its largest one-day move was 29 points down, to 3.9% on 24 Jun 2025. $6.09M traded over the market's life.
536 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 2, 4:24 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 16 points, 16 Jun 2025 – 1 Jul 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 16 Jun 2025 | 22.5% |
| 1 Jul 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| analord | Yes | 92.67K |
| BubbleDoubleDo | Yes | 45.34K |
| tekramP | Yes | 32.63K |
| liliyg | Yes | 27.55K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
If Iran halts or severely restricts international maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official governmental information, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-iran-close-the-strait-of-hormuz-before-july
| mgsrevolver | Yes | 25.34K |
| NihilFit | Yes | 21.55K |
| blackswanscenarios | Yes | 20.94K |
| abeking | Yes | 17.72K |
| ebitty | Yes | 17.48K |
| pmuser25 | Yes | 13.61K |
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