Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Sep 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 7.5% on 7 Aug 2025. Before it settled, across the 26 daily closes on record from 7 Aug 2025 to 1 Sep 2025, the highest close was 19.5% on 9 Aug 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Sep 2025. Its largest one-day move was 9 points up, to 19.5% on 9 Aug 2025. $4.49M traded over the market's life.
329 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Sep 2, 9:19 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 26 points, 7 Aug 2025 – 1 Sep 2025, chart shows 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 7 Aug 2025 | 7.5% |
| 1 Sep 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| satoshiAncap | Yes | 391.27K |
| Pigbenis8888 | Yes | 133.87K |
| Bink_7 | Yes | 25.51K |
| Fabel.Gospodin.Bumaga | Yes | 23.35K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by August 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by-august-31
| Fesfouss | Yes | 23.2K |
| kiwi-alex | Yes | 20K |
| PnW | Yes | 13K |
| xierdo | Yes | 11.55K |
| polor | Yes | 10.86K |
| wisser | Yes | 9.7K |
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