Analytics
Resolved No on 16 Aug 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.5%. Yes opened at 74.5% on 31 Jul 2025. Before it settled, across the 17 daily closes on record from 31 Jul 2025 to 16 Aug 2025, the highest close was 74.5% on 31 Jul 2025 and the lowest 0.5% on 16 Aug 2025. Its largest one-day move was 24 points up, to 68.5% on 5 Aug 2025. $601.6K traded over the market's life.
102 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 17, 8:50 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 17 points, 31 Jul 2025 – 16 Aug 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 31 Jul 2025 | 74.5% |
| 16 Aug 2025 | 0.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemeni soil or any official Yemeni embassy or consulate between July 30 and August 15, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Yemeni territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity as to whether a qualifying strike occurred, this market may remain open after resolution time for confirming evidence.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israel-strikes-yemen-by-august-15
| Ronenio | Yes | 1.05K |
| Illuminatiboi | Yes | 1K |
| Tomercohen11 | Yes | 670.47 |
| neverEnder18 | Yes | 465.41 |
| navfruch1501 | Yes | 299.99 |
| Mzeldovi | Yes | 295.04 |
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