Will Israel or Iran break the ceasefire first?

This market will resolve to "Israel" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate before Iran initiates a qualifying strike on Israeli soil or any official Israeli embassy or consulate. This market will resolve to "Iran" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israeli soil or any official Israeli embassy or consulate before Israel initiates a qualifying strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate. If neither party initiates a qualifying strike by August 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli or Iranian military forces that impact the other party’s ground territory or any official embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an Israeli missile, or an Israeli air base is hit by an Iranian drone, this market will resolve based on who struck first), and that is officially acknowledged by the relevant government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient to qualify regardless of whether they land on the opposing party’s territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify. Actions taken by proxy groups (e.g., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not be considered. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Timing will be assessed based on the earliest verifiable time of impact.

Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-israel-or-iran-break-the-ceasefire-first