Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 25.5% on 23 Jun 2025. Before it settled, across the 194 daily closes on record from 23 Jun 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 25.5% on 23 Jun 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 28 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 8 points down, to 17.5% on 24 Jun 2025. $427.67K traded over the market's life.
135 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 8:31 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 194 points, 23 Jun 2025 – 1 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 23 Jun 2025 | 25.5% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| invet1234 | Yes | 24.3K |
| popelfresser | Yes | 7.9K |
| aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa | Yes | 999.98 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active regular US military personnel physically enter Iran for combat operations at any point between June 21, 2025, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count. High ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage), military contractors, military advisors, and special operation forces will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-forces-in-iran-in-2025
New to prediction markets?
| thomas111 | Yes | 871.6 |
| Virtual-Sidecar | Yes | 833.33 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 832.43 |
| Bishop138 | Yes | 588.24 |
| jmal-655 | Yes | 428.57 |
| littlekahuna | Yes | 391.63 |
| Mehdipersian | Yes | 344.82 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
